Svi prijevodi dobiveni su uz pomoć NeuroTran-a. Interaktivni mod NeuroTran-a korišten je od strane osobe koja je stručni prevoditelj. Greške koje se neminovno javljaju u NeuroTran prijevodu stručni prevoditelj je automatski ispravljao. Prevođenje uz pomoć NeuroTran-a može uštedjeti više od 85% vremena pri prevođenju tekstova od kratkih do dugih.

Više o NeuroTran® softveru možete doznati na web stranici: http://www.tranexp.hr/NeuroTran.html

NeuroTran® prijevodi poredani kronološki:

[Wed Oct 22 15:38:13 2003]
But you'd be wrong.
No bili biste u krivu.

[Wed Oct 22 15:39:54 2003]
Many widely used models
Mnogi modeli koji se uveliko koriste

[Wed Oct 22 15:43:01 2003]
in economics, psychology, management, and other disciplines violate basic laws of physics, even though they may replicate historical behavior quite well (see section 9.3.2 and chapter 21).
u ekonomiju, psihologiji, menedžmentu, i ostalim područjima krše osnovne zakone fizike, iako mogu replicirati stvarno ponašanje prilično dobro (vidi odjeljak 9.3.2 i poglavlje 21).

[Wed Oct 22 15:43:01 2003]
Extreme conditions tests, along with other tests of model behavior, are critical tools to discover the flaws in your model and set the stage for improved understanding.
Testovi ekstremnih uvjeta, zajedno sa ostalim testovima ponašanja modela, predstavljaju vrlo važna sredstva za otkrivanje nedostataka u vašem modelu i pripremaju teren za bolje razumijevanje.

[Wed Oct 22 15:47:35 2003]
Once you and the client have developed confidence in the structure and behavior of the model, you can use it to design and evaluate policies for improvement.
Kad ste jednom vi i klijent razvili povjerenje u strukturu i ponašanje modela, možete ju upotrijebiti za dizajniranje i procjenu politika za poboljšanje.

[Wed Oct 22 15:50:52 2003]
Policy design is much more than changing the values of parameters such as a tax rate or markup ratio.
Dizajn politike je puno više od mijenjanja vrijednosti parametara kao što je porezna stopa ili omjer poskupljenja.

[Wed Oct 22 16:10:14 2003]
Policy design includes the creation of entirely new strategies, structures, and decision rules.
uključuje stvaranje potpuno novih strategija, struktura, i pravila odlučivanja.

[Wed Oct 22 16:10:14 2003]
Since the feedback structure of a system determines its dynamics, most of the time high leverage policies will involve changing the dominant feedback loops by redesigning the stock and flow structure, eliminating time delays, changing the flow and quality of information available at key decision points, or fundamentally reinventing the decision processes of the actors in the system.
budući da struktura povratne informacija sustava utvrđuje svoju dinamiku, većinu će vremena politike velike zaduženosti uključivati mijenjanje dominantne petlje povratne veze redizajniranjem strukture stoka i toka, uklanjajući kašnjenja, mijenjajući tok i kvalitetu podataka dostupnih na ključnim točkama odlučivanja, ili iz temelja ponovo smišljajući postupke odlučivanja sudionika u sustavu.

[Wed Oct 22 16:16:27 2003]
The robustness of policies and their sensitivity to uncertainties in model parameters and Structure must be assessed, including their performance under a wide range of alternative scenarios.
Izdržljivost politika i njihova osjetljivost na nesigurnosti u parametre i strukturu modela mora se procijeniti, uključujući izvedba prema velikom opsegu alternativnih scenarija.

[Wed Oct 22 16:17:44 2003]
The interactions of different policies must also be considered:
Interakcije različitih politika moraju se također uzeti u obzir:

[Wed Oct 22 16:20:13 2003]
Because real systems are highly nonlinear, the impact of combination policies is usually not the sum of their impacts alone.
Budući da su stvarni sustavi izrazito nelinearni, utjecaj kombinacijskih politika obično nije zbroj samih njihovih djelovanja.

[Wed Oct 22 16:20:50 2003]
Often policies interfere with one another;
Često se politike miješaju jedna s drugom;

[Wed Oct 22 16:20:50 2003]
sometimes they reinforce one another and generate substantial synergies.
ponekad jedna drugu učvršćavaju i stvaraju značajne sinergije.

[Thu Oct 23 08:43:26 2003]
This chapter described the modeling process.
Ovo je poglavlje opisalo postupak modeliranje.

[Thu Oct 23 08:43:55 2003]
While there are certain steps all modelers go through, modeling is not a cookbook procedure.
iako postoje neki koraci kroz koje prolaze svi modelari, modeliranje nije kuharica s točno opisanim postupcima pripreme.

[Thu Oct 23 08:48:25 2003]
It is fundamentally creative.
Bitno je kreativno.

[Thu Oct 23 08:48:25 2003]
At the same time, modeling is a disciplined, scientific, and rigorous process, challenging the modeler and client at every step to surface and test assumptions, gather data, and revise their models-both formal and mental.
No u isto je vrijeme, discipliniran, znanstven, i precizan postupak, tjerajući modelara i klijenta da na svakom koraku na smišljaju i testiraju pretpostavke, prikupljaju podatke, i ispravljaju svoje modele-i one formalne i one mentalne.

[Thu Oct 23 08:51:44 2003]
Modeling is iterative.
Modeliranje se ponavlja.

[Thu Oct 23 08:54:37 2003]
No one ever built a model by starting with step 1 and progressing in sequence through a list of activities.
Nitko nikada nije napravio model tako da je započeo s korakom 1 i nastavio redom kroz popis aktivnosti.

[Thu Oct 23 08:55:41 2003]
Modeling is a continual process of iteration among problem articulation, hypothesis generation, data collection, model formulation, testing, and analysis.
Modeliranje je trajni postupak ponavljanja između izražavanja problema, stvaranja hipoteza, prikupljanja podataka, oblikovanja modela, testiranja, i analize.

[Thu Oct 23 08:59:55 2003]
There are revisions and changes, blind alleys and backtracking.
Postoje ispravljanja i promjene, slijepe ulice i vraćanje.

[Thu Oct 23 09:00:26 2003]
Effective modeling continually cycles between experiments in the virtual world of the model and experiments and data collection in the real world.
Učinkovito modeliranje neprestano kruži između eksperimenata u virtualnom svijetu modela i eksperimenata i prikupljanja podataka u stvarnom svijetu.

[Thu Oct 23 09:00:42 2003]
Models must be clearly focused on a purpose.
Modeli se moraju jasno usredotočiti na svrhu.

[Thu Oct 23 09:00:52 2003]
Never build a model of a system.
Nikad ne gradite model sustava.

[Thu Oct 23 09:02:46 2003]
Models are simplifications;
Modeli su pojednostavljenja;

[Thu Oct 23 09:05:58 2003]
without a clear purpose, you have no basis for excluding anything from your model and your effort is doomed to failure.
bez jasne svrhe, nemate osnovu za izostavljanje bilo čega iz vašeg modela pa je vaše trud osuđen na neuspjeh.

[Thu Oct 23 09:13:26 2003]
Of course, as the modeling process leads you to deeper insight, your definition and statement of the problem may change.
Dakako, kako vas postupak modeliranje dovodi do boljeg uvida, vaša definicija i izvještaj o problemu bi se mogli promijeniti.

[Thu Oct 23 09:13:26 2003]
Indeed, such radical reframings are often the most important outcome of modeling.
Doista, takvi radikalne preinake često su najvažnija posljedica modeliranja.

[Thu Oct 23 09:20:52 2003]
The purpose of modeling is to help the clients solve their problem.
Svrha modeliranja je pomoći klijentima da riješe svoj problem.

[Thu Oct 23 09:23:09 2003]
Though the modeling process often challenges the clients' conception of the problem, ultimately, if the client perceives that your model does not address their concern, you can have little impact.
Iako postupak modeliranje često osporava ideju o problemu koju klijenti imaju, nakon svega, ako klijent uvidi da vaš model ne odgovara njihovom interesu, ne možete imati velikog utjecaja.

[Thu Oct 23 09:24:36 2003]
The modeler must not grow attached to a model, no matter how elegant or how much time has been invested in it.
Modelar se ne smije razvijati tako da je odan samo jednom modelu, bez obzira na to koliko je taj model uglađen ili koliko je vremena u njega uloženo.

[Thu Oct 23 09:24:36 2003]
If it doesn't help the clients solve their problem, it needs to be revised until it does.
Ako ne pomaže klijentima u rješavanju njihovog problema, treba ga se ispravljati dok ne postane koristan.

[Thu Oct 23 09:30:57 2003]
Modeling takes place in an organizational and social context.
Modeliranje se odvija u organizacijskom i društvenom kontekstu.

[Thu Oct 23 09:33:19 2003]
The setting may be a business but can also be a government agency, a scientific community, a public policy debate, or any other organization.
Okruženje može biti poslovna no isto tako i vladina agencija, znanstvena zajednica, javnost politička debata, ili bilo koja druga organizacija.

[Thu Oct 23 09:33:19 2003]
Modelers are inevitably caught up in
Modelari su neizbježno umiješani u

[Thu Oct 23 09:37:42 2003]
the politics of the community and personalities of its members.
politiku zajednice i s njenim članovim.

[Thu Oct 23 09:39:30 2003]
Modelers require both first-rate analytical skills and excellent interpersonal and political skills.
Za modelare je potrebno da posjeduju i prvorazredne analitičke vještine i izvrsne međuljudske i političke vještine.

[Thu Oct 23 09:46:38 2003]
Finally, modelers have an ethical responsibility to pursue the modeling process with rigor and integrity.
Naposljetku, modelari imaju etičnu odgovornost da postupak modeliranje vrše bez popuštanja i u cjelovitosti.

[Thu Oct 23 09:47:38 2003]
The fact that modeling is embedded in an organizational context and subject to political pressures does not relieve you of your responsibility to carry out your work with the highest standards of scientific inquiry and professional conduct.
Činjenica da modeliranje je uključeno u organizacijski kontekst i sklono političkim pritiscima ne oslobađa vas od vaše odgovornosti da obavljate svoj posao s najvišim standardima znanstvenog istraživanja i profesionalnog ponašanja.

[Thu Oct 23 09:47:38 2003]
If your client is not willing to pursue the modeling process honestly, quit and find yourself a better client.
Ako vaš klijent ne želi se držati postupak modeliranje iskreno, odustanete i pronađite si boljeg klijenta.

[Thu Oct 23 15:37:21 2003]
Process Point
Točka postupka

[Thu Oct 23 15:40:07 2003]
Portraying Stocks and Flows in Practice
Prikazivanje stokova i tokova u praksi

[Thu Oct 23 15:45:18 2003]
Each of the stock and flow representations in Figure 6-2 (the bathtub, stock and flow diagram, integral equation, and differential equation) contains precisely the same information.
Svi reprezentacije stoka i toka na Slici 6-2 (kada, dijagram stoka i toka, integralna jednadžba, i diferencijalna jednadžba) sadržavaju točno isto podatak.

[Thu Oct 23 15:46:19 2003]
They are exactly equivalent.
Potpuno su isti.

[Thu Oct 23 15:47:37 2003]
Which should you use to develop and present your models, especially when you are working in a team?
Koji biste trebali koristiti za razvoj i predstavljanje svojih modela, naročito kada radite u timu?

[Thu Oct 23 16:00:20 2003]
While many mathematically sophisticated modelers scoff at the idea of explaining a complex model using bathtubs and pipes, I have many times seen otherwise brilliant modeling efforts founder because the analyst tried to explain a model using differential equations and mathematical notation-or the simulation code-to a client team with little technical background.
Iako mnogi matematički obrazovani modelari se podruguju ideji o objašnjavanju složen model pomoću kade i cijevi, puno puta sam vidio da drugačija sjajno nastojanja modeliranje propadaju jer analitičar pokušao objasniti model koristeći se diferencijalnim jednadžbama i matematičkim označavanjem-ili simulacijskim kodom-timu za klijente s malo tehničke pozadine.

[Thu Oct 23 16:05:15 2003]
One of the worst things a consultant can do is humiliate the client.
Jedna od najgorih stvari koju savjetnik može učiniti jest poniziti klijenta.

[Thu Oct 23 16:05:15 2003]
Showing off your mathematical knowledge by using differential equations, lots of Greek letters, and other notation the client never studied or forgot a long time ago is a sure-fire way to convince your clients you care more for the elegance of your equations than for helping them solve their problem.
Razmetanjem svojim matematičkim znanjem koristeći se diferencijalnim jednadžbama, mnogim grčkim slovima, i ostalim oznakama koje klijent nikad nije učio ili ih je zaboravio odavno je siguran-je način da se vaši klijenti uvjere da vam više stalo do za gracioznosti vaših jednadžbi nego da im pomagnete to riješe svoj problem.

[Thu Oct 23 16:26:55 2003]
Stock and flow diagrams contain the same information as the more mathematically formal notation but are easier to understand and to modify on the fly.
Dijagrami stoka i toka sadržavaju istu informacija kao i više matematička formalna oznaka no lakše ih je razumjeti i izmijeniti u letu.

[Thu Oct 23 16:28:09 2003]
Still, some team members consider even the stock and flow diagram format to be too abstract.
No ipak, neki članovi tima smatraju čak da je oblik dijagrama stoka i toka i format također previše apstraktan.

[Thu Oct 23 16:28:09 2003]
I have often seen clever graphics of tanks, pipes, and valves used to excellent effect with client teams.
Često sam naišao na pametnu grafiku spremnika, cijev, i ventil koji su se koristili za poboljšanje učinka s timovima za klijente.

[Fri Oct 24 08:55:34 2003]
For example, a consulting project with a multinational chemicals firm represented the flows of production, inventories, shipments, and customer stocks-along with capacity, cash, and even equipment defects-as a series of pipes, valves, and tanks.
Na primjer, konzultativni projekt s multinacionalnim tvrtke za proizvodnju kemikalija predstavio je tokove proizvodnje, zaliha, pošiljki, i dionica klijenata-zajedno sa kapacitetom, gotovinom, i čak nedostacima opreme-kao niz cijevi, ventila, i spremnika.

[Fri Oct 24 08:57:32 2003]
The team members were able to grasp the stock and flow structure readily since they were all familiar with the tanks and pipes carrying materials in their plants.
Članovi tima su mogli shvatiti strukturu stoka i toka brzo budući da su bili svi upoznati s i nosećim materijalima za spremnike i cijevi u svojim pogonima.

[Fri Oct 24 08:59:16 2003]
In fact, most of the client team were engineers by training and had plenty of background in mathematics.
Zaista, većina u timu za klijente su bili inženjeri po izobrazbi i imali dobru podlogu iz matematike.

[Fri Oct 24 08:59:16 2003]
Yet several commented that they never really understood how the business worked until they saw the chart showing its stock and flow structure as tanks and pipes.
Ipak ih je nekoliko prokomentiralo da nikad zapravo nisu razumjeli kako poslovanje funkcionira dok nisu vidjeli grafikon koji je pokazivao njegovu struktura stoka i toka kao što su spremnici i cijevi.

[Fri Oct 24 09:07:00 2003]
What if your clients have even less technical training than these chemical company executives?
Što ako vaši klijenti imaju čak manju tehničku izobrazbu od ovih direktora kemijskog poduzeće?

[Fri Oct 24 09:07:55 2003]
The bathtub metaphor is often used to good effect, as illustrated by the case of automobile leasing (see Figure 2.4).
metafora kade često ima dobar učinak, kako je prikazano u slučaju zakupa automobila (vidi Sliku 2.4).

[Fri Oct 24 09:08:13 2003]
What if the stocks and flows in your model aren't as tangible as barrels of oil or automobiles?
Što ako stokovi i tokovi u vašem model nisu opipljivi poput kao bareli nafte ili automobili?

[Fri Oct 24 09:10:39 2003]
Get creative.
Budite kreativni.

[Fri Oct 24 09:16:24 2003]
In a management flight simulator of insurance claims processing (Kim 1989;
U menadžment simulatoru leta osiguranja potrebna je prerada (Kim 1989;

[Fri Oct 24 09:19:25 2003]
Diehl 1994), a flow of letters arriving to an inbox represented the addition of new claims to the stock of unresolved claims.
Diehl 1994), tok pisama koja dolaze u sandučić prikazao je dodavanje novih zahtjeva na stok neriješenog zahtjeva.

[Fri Oct 24 09:21:38 2003]
Letters containing checks flowed out to the customers as claims were settled.
Pisma s čekovima istjecati klijentima kao su se zahtjevi rješavali.

[Fri Oct 24 09:22:51 2003]
Icons of people represented the stock and flow structure of claims adjusters (Figure 6-9).
Sličice ljudi su predstavljale strukturu stoka i toka savjetnika za osiguranje (Slika 6-9).

[Fri Oct 24 09:22:51 2003]
Participants in workshops using the model were able to understand the system structure much better than if the more abstract symbols had been used.
Sudionici na radionici koji su koristili model su mogli razumjeti strukturu sustava mnogo bolje nego da apstraktniji simboli su bili korišteni.

[Fri Oct 24 09:36:54 2003]
I am not recommending that you keep the equations or stock and flow diagrams hidden from your client.
Ne preporučam vam da sakrivate jednadžbe ili dijagrame stoka i toka od vašeg klijenta.

[Fri Oct 24 09:37:51 2003]
Never hide your model from a curious client.
Nikad ne sakrivajte svoj model od radoznalog klijenta.

[Fri Oct 24 09:38:21 2003]
You should always look for and create opportunities for client team members to learn more about the modeling process;
Uvijek biste trebali tražiti i stvarati mogućnosti za članove tima za klijente članstva da nauče više o postupku modeliranja;

[Fri Oct 24 09:38:32 2003]
you should always be prepared to explain the
uvijek biste trebali biti spremni da objasnite

[Fri Oct 24 09:38:32 2003]
workings of your model.
funkcioniranje vašeg modela.

[Fri Oct 24 09:41:04 2003]
Stocks and flows of claims and claims adjusters in an insurance company
Stokovi i tokovi zahtjeva i savjetnici za osiguranje u osiguravajućem društvu

[Fri Oct 24 09:58:45 2003]
And while I caution the mathematically sophisticated modeler against overly technical presentation, the opposite problem can also arise:
I dok upozoravam matematički obrazovanog modelator na preveliko tehničko prikazivanje, suprotan problem može se pojaviti i:

[Fri Oct 24 09:59:46 2003]
some clients are offended by what they consider to be simplistic cartoon diagrams and prefer what they view as the more professional presentation of stock and flow diagrams or even equations.
neke klijente vrijeđa ono što oni smatraju previše pojednostavljenim nacrtanim dijagramima i preferiraju ono što oni smatraju profesionalnijim prikazivanjem dijagrama stoka i toka ili čak jednadžbi.

[Fri Oct 24 10:00:38 2003]
As always, you must get to know your client deeply and early in the modeling process.
Kao i uvijek, morate upoznati svog klijenta dobro i u ranoj fazi postupka modeliranja.

[Fri Oct 24 10:02:39 2003]
Finally, a caution for those with less technical training and mathematical background:
Napokon, oprez s onima koji imaju manju tehničko obrazovanje i matematičku podlogu:

[Fri Oct 24 10:04:46 2003]
Clients may not need to understand the deep relationship between their bathtub and the mathematics underlying stocks and flows, but you do.
Klijenti možda ne trebaju razumjeti skriven odnos između kade i matematike koje su osnova za stokove i tokove, no vi trebate.

[Fri Oct 24 10:04:46 2003]
While you don't need to be able to solve differential equations to be a successful modeler, you do need to understand the structure and dynamics of stocks and flows thoroughly and rigorously.
Iako ne trebate znate riješiti diferencijalne jednadžbe da bi bili uspješan modelar, trebate razumjeti strukturu i dinamika stokova i tokova temeljito i precizno.

[Fri Oct 24 10:09:05 2003]
MAPPING STOCKS AND FLOWS
PRESLIKAVANJE STOKOVA I TOKOVA

[Fri Oct 24 10:10:01 2003]
When Should Causal Loop Diagrams Show Stock and Flow Structure
Kada bi dijagrami uzročnih petlji trebali prikazivati strukturu Stoka i toka

[Fri Oct 24 10:19:18 2003]
Causal diagrams can be drawn without showing the stock and flow structure of a system.
Uzročni dijagrami se mogu nacrtati bez prikazivanja strukture stoka i toka sustava.

[Fri Oct 24 10:20:26 2003]
Or, as shown in Figure 6-8, they can include the stock and flow structure explicitly.
Ili, kako je prikazano na Slici 6-8, mogu obuhvaćati i samo strukturu stoka i toka.

[Fri Oct 24 10:30:50 2003]
When should you include the stock and flow structure, and when can you omit it?
Kada bi se struktura stoka i toka trebala obuhvaćati, i kada ispustiti?

[Fri Oct 24 10:31:44 2003]
Generally, you should include stock and flow structures representing physical processes, delays, or stocks whose behavior is important in the dynamics you seek to explain.
Općenito, biste trebali obuhvatiti strukture stoka i toka koje prikazuju fizičke procese, kašnjenja, ili stokove čije je ponašanje važno u dinamici koju pokušavate objasniti.

[Fri Oct 24 10:32:44 2003]
For example, consider the flow of a product through a supply chain from producer to consumer.
Na primjer, razmotrite tok proizvoda kroz opskrbni lanac od proizvođača do potrošača.

[Fri Oct 24 10:34:43 2003]
The product travels through a network of stocks (inventories) and flows (shipment and delivery rates).
Proizvod prolazi kroz mrežu stokova (zalihe) i tokova (pošiljka i cijene dostave).

[Fri Oct 24 10:34:43 2003]
The stock and flow representation for this process is shown in the top panel of Figure 6-10.
Prikaz stoka i toka za ovaj proces prikazan je u gornjem dijelu Slike 6-10.

[Fri Oct 24 10:41:29 2003]
Production starts add to the stock of work in process (WIP) Inventory.
Počeci proizvodnje pripadaju stoku Zaliha nedovršene proizvodnje (WIP).

[Fri Oct 24 10:41:29 2003]
The Production Completion Rate reduces the stock of WIP and increases the stock of
Završna cijena proizvodne smanjuje stok WIP-a i povećava stok

[Fri Oct 24 10:49:03 2003]
Work in Process Inventory
Zalihe Nedovršena proizvodnja

[Fri Oct 24 10:50:04 2003]
Finished Inventory
Zalihe gotovih proizvoda

[Fri Oct 24 10:50:46 2003]
Shipment Rate
Otprema Procijeniš

[Fri Oct 24 10:52:27 2003]
Finished Inventory.
Zaliha gotovih proizvoda.

[Fri Oct 24 10:55:49 2003]
Shipments to customers deplete Finished Inventory.
Pošiljke klijentima iscrpljuju Zalihe gotovih proizvoda.

[Fri Oct 24 10:55:49 2003]
Equivalently, the stock of WIP accumulates production starts less completions, and the stock of finished inventory accumulates production completions less shipments.
Isto tako, stok WIP-a gomila početke proizvodnje minus dovršenja, a stok zalihe gotovih proizvoda gomila dovršenja proizvodnje minus pošiljke.

[Fri Oct 24 11:00:12 2003]
The causal diagram representation is shown in the bottom panel of Figure 6-10.
prikaz Uzročni dijagram prikazan je u donjem dijelu Slike 6-10.

[Fri Oct 24 11:02:05 2003]
While technically correct, the causal diagram makes it hard to see the physical flow of product through the system and the conservation of material in the stock and flow chain.
Iako je tehnički točan, na uzročnom je dijagramu teško vidjeti fizički tok proizvoda kroz sustav i očuvanje materijala u lancu stoka i toka.

[Fri Oct 24 11:06:14 2003]
It is often confusing to interpret the polarities of the causal links when they involve stocks and flows.
često je teško protumačiti polaritete uzročnih veza kad uključuju stokove i tokove.

[Fri Oct 24 11:07:39 2003]
An increase in the Production Completion Rate causes Finished Inventory to rise above what it would have been otherwise (it rises at a faster rate), hence the polarity of the link is positive.
Porast u brzini završavanja proizvodnje povećava Zalihe gotovih proizvoda iznad onoga što je inače normalno (povećava u većom brzinom), stoga je polaritet veze pozitivan.

[Fri Oct 24 11:32:15 2003]
A decrease in production completions, however, does not cause finished inventory to fall.
Smanjenje završenja proizvodnje, međutim, ne uzrokuje pad zalihe gotovih proizvoda.

[Fri Oct 24 11:32:15 2003]
Rather, a decrease in the production completion rate causes finished inventory to be less than it would have been.
Štoviše, smanjenje u brzini završavanja proizvodnje smanjuje količinu zaliha gotovih proizvoda nego što bi to ona bila inače.

[Fri Oct 24 11:48:27 2003]
You cannot say whether finished inventory will be rising or falling based on the behavior of the production rate alone.
Ne možete procijeniti hoće li zalihe gotovih proizvoda rasti ili padati samo s obzirom na ponašanje brzine proizvodnje.

[Fri Oct 24 11:49:55 2003]
Inventory will rise only when production completions exceed the shipment rate;
Zalihe će porasti samo onda kad završavanja proizvodnje budu premašivala brzinu pošiljke;

[Fri Oct 24 11:50:40 2003]
that is, inventory rises only when we add to it faster than we remove units from it.
odnosno, zalihe rastu samo kad jedinice dodajemo brže nego što ih uklonjamo.

[Fri Oct 24 11:52:20 2003]
You need to know the values of all the flows affecting a stock to determine its behavior.
trebate poznavati vrijednosti svih tokova koji utječu na stok da biste utvrditi njegovo ponašanje.

[Fri Oct 24 11:52:20 2003]
Richardson ( 1986a, 1997) carefully documents the pitfalls of causal diagrams, most of which involve the failure of causal diagrams to show the stock/flow distinction.
Richardson (1986a, 1997) pažljivo dokumentira zamke uzročnih dijagrama, od kojih većina uključuje neuspjeh uzročnih dijagrama da prikažu razliku stoka/toka.

[Fri Oct 24 12:00:32 2003]
Aggregation in Stock and Flow Mapping
Agregacija u preslikavanju stoka i toka

[Fri Oct 24 12:04:59 2003]
The ability to map the stocks and flows in a system is critical to effective modeling.
Sposobnost da se preslikaju stokovi i tokovi u sustavu od ključne je važnosti za učinkovito modeliranje.

[Fri Oct 24 12:05:41 2003]
Usually it is wise to identify the main stocks in a system and then the flows that alter those stocks.
Obično su pametno ustanoviti glavne stokove u sustavu i zatim tokovi koji mijenjaju te stokove.

[Fri Oct 24 12:06:22 2003]
You must select an appropriate level of aggregation and boundary for these stock and flow maps.
morate odabrati prikladnu razinu agregacije i granice za te mape stoka i toka.

[Fri Oct 24 12:10:21 2003]
The level of aggregation refers to the number of internal categories or stocks represented.
Razina agregacije se odnosi na broj unutrašnjih kategorija ili stokovi koji su prikazani.

[Fri Oct 24 12:10:21 2003]
The boundary refers to how far upstream and downstream one chooses to represent the flows of materials and other quantities in the model.
Granica se odnosi na to koliko daleko uzvodno i nizvodno se želi prikazati tokove materijala i ostalih količina u modelu.

[Fri Oct 24 12:22:04 2003]
To illustrate, consider the manufacturing process discussed above in which material flows from production starts through WIP inventory to finished inventory and finally shipment to the customer.
Da bi si to bolje objasnili, razmotrite postupak proizvodnje o kojem se gore raspravlja u kojem materijal ide od početaka proizvodnje kroz Zalihe nedovršene proizvodnje prema zalihama gotovih proizvoda i napokon dolazi do pošiljke za klijentua.

[Fri Oct 24 12:25:40 2003]
All the various parts, components, and subassemblies are aggregated together into a single stock of WIP.
Svi su različiti dijelovi, komponente, i podskupovi sakupljeni u jedini stok WIP-a.

[Fri Oct 24 12:26:52 2003]
And though the firm may carry tens of thousands of SKUs (stock keeping units), these individual items are all aggregated into a single stock of finished inventory.
) desetine tisuća SKU-ova (jedinica za čuvanje stokova), ovi pojedinačni proizvodi su svi prikupljeni u jedan stok zalihe gotovih proizvoda.

[Fri Oct 24 12:29:31 2003]
For many purposes the aggregate picture is sufficient.
Ukupna je slika dovoljna za mnoge svrhe.

[Fri Oct 24 12:35:28 2003]
However, the model purpose might require more detail.
Međutim, svrha modela bi mogla zahtijevati više detalja.

[Fri Oct 24 12:35:28 2003]
If the purpose involved a closer look at the manufacturing process, you could disaggregate the stock of work in process serially to represent the different stages, such as part fabrication, assembly, and testing (Figure 6-11 ).
Ako svrha je zahtijevala bolji uvid u postupak proizvodnje, biste mogli razdvojiti stok nedovršene proizvodnje serijski da biste prikazali različite faze, kao na primjer izrađivanje dijelova, sastavljanje, i testiranje (Slika 6-11).

[Fri Oct 24 14:16:09 2003]
The sum of the three intermediate stocks is the total work in process inventory, but now the model tracks throughput at a finer level of resolution and can represent more potential bottlenecks in the production process.
Zbroj triju posredničkih stokova su ukupne zalihe nedovršene proizvodnje, ali sada model slijediti protok na finojoj/boljoj razini odluke (?) i može prikazivati potencijalnija uska grla u procesu proizvodnje.

[Fri Oct 24 14:20:34 2003]
Note that in both the original, aggregate diagram and in this more detailed diagram there is no provision for rework or scrap.
Uočite da u i originalnom, ukupnom dijagramu i u ovom opširnijem dijagramu ne postoji odredba/pribavljanje (?) za prerađivanje ili otpadak.

[Fri Oct 24 14:21:58 2003]
All units started are eventually completed-the flow of widgets through the system is conserved.
Sve jedinice koje su započete s vremenom su dovršene-tok proizvoda potrošača (?) kroz sustav se očuvao.

[Fri Oct 24 14:24:27 2003]
Note also that as material flows through the system it is transformed from parts to finished product.
Također uočite da dok se materijal kreće kroz sustav iz dijelova se pretvara u gotov proizvod.

[Fri Oct 24 14:24:57 2003]
To maintain consistent units of measure we might measure parts in widget equivalents-that is, a widget's worth of parts.
Da bi jedinice mjere ostale nepromijenjene bismo mogli mjeriti dijelove u istim proizvodima proizvođača (?)-odnosno, vrijednošću dijelova tog proizvoda.

[Fri Oct 24 14:24:57 2003]
If necessary for the purpose, you can further disaggregate the stock and flow structure.
Ako je potrebno za svrhu, možete nadalje razdvojiti strukturu stoka i toka.

[Fri Oct 24 14:32:22 2003]
Disaggregated stock and flow map for a manufacturing process
Razdvojena mapa stoka i toka za postupak proizvodnje

[Fri Oct 24 14:36:57 2003]
Assemblies in Process
Sklopovi u Procesu

[Fri Oct 24 14:37:39 2003]
Product in Testing
Proizvod u Testiranju

[Fri Oct 24 14:37:54 2003]
Finished Inventory
Zalihe gotovih proizvoda

[Fri Oct 24 14:38:12 2003]
Work in Process Inventory
Nedovršena proizvodnja Zalihe

[Fri Oct 24 14:46:53 2003]
Up to now the discussion has focused on serial disaggregation:
Dosad se rasprava usredotočavala na serijsko raslojavanje (?):

[Fri Oct 24 14:48:37 2003]
how finely to break down the stages of processing.
kako dobro rastaviti faze prerade.

[Fri Oct 24 14:49:32 2003]
Throughout, the many different parts and products produced by typical firm are aggregated into a single chain of stocks and flows.
Od početka do kraja, mnogi različiti dijelovi i proizvodi koje je proizvela pored tipične tvrtka slažu se u jedan lanac stokova i tokova.

[Fri Oct 24 14:54:07 2003]
In many situations the process occurs not only in series but also involves parallel activities.
U mnogim situacijama postupak se ne događa samo u seriji već obuhvaća i paralelne aktivnosti.

[Fri Oct 24 14:57:14 2003]
You could of course replicate the main stock and flow chain for each product (many simulation software packages support array structures for this purpose).
biste mogli naravno replicirati glavni lanac stoka i toka za svaki proizvod (mnogi simulacijski programski paketi podržavaju strukture polja u ovu svrhu).

[Fri Oct 24 15:00:58 2003]
hen there are multiple, parallel activities you must make a decision not only about the number of stages of the process to represent but also how much to aggregate the different parallel processes together.
Kad postoje mnogostruk, paralelne aktivnosti morate donijeti odluku ne samo o broju faza postupka koje želite prikazati već i za koliko povećati različite paralelne postupke zajedno.

[Fri Oct 24 15:05:04 2003]
For example, the assembly process for automobiles involves integrating the chassis and engine.
Na primjer, postupak montaže za automobile uključuje umetanje automobilskog okvira i motora.

[Fri Oct 24 15:15:52 2003]
Each subassembly is built on a separate line, often in plants far from the final assembly point.
Svaki se pod-dio montaže izgrađuje na zasebnoj liniji, često u postrojenjima daleko od završne montažne točke.

[Fri Oct 24 15:16:41 2003]
Suppose the client argues that you can't aggregate all subcomponents into a single flow of parts, but must separate chassis and engine fabrication (omit the body for simplicity).
Pretpostavite da klijent tvrdi da ne možete sakupiti sve podkomponente u jedini tok dijelova, nego da morate odvojiti izradu automobilskog okvira i motora (izostaviti karoseriju zbog jednostavnosti).

[Fri Oct 24 15:16:41 2003]
The stock and flow map for the assembly process might be shown as in Figure 6-12.
Mapa stoka i toka za postupak montiranja bi mogao biti prikazan biti pokazana kao na Slici 6-12.

[Fri Oct 24 15:23:06 2003]
There are now three distinct stock and flow chains, one each for engines, chassis, and assembled cars.
Postoje sada tri različita lanca stoka i toka, po jedan za motore, automobilske okvire, i sastavljene automobile.

[Fri Oct 24 15:23:33 2003]
Because the three chains are separate, each can be measured in different units:
Budući da su tri lanca odvojena, svaki se može mjeriti različitim jedinicama:

[Fri Oct 24 15:26:09 2003]
engines, chassis, and cars.
motorima, automobilskim okvirima, i automobilima.

[Fri Oct 24 15:30:42 2003]
The three chains are linked because each car beginning the final assembly process requires one engine from the stock of completed engines and one chassis from the stock of completed chassis.
Tri su lanca povezan jer svaki automobil koji započinje završni postupak montiranja zahtijeva jedan motor iz stoka završenih motora i jednog automobilskog okvira iz stoka dovršenog automobilskog okvira.

[Fri Oct 24 15:32:54 2003]
The information arrows from the assembly rate to the engine and chassis use rates show these links.
Informacijske strelice koje idu od omjera montiranja do omjera upotrebe motora i automobilskog okvira prikazuju ove veze.

[Fri Oct 24 15:34:14 2003]
T e number of engines and chassis available also determine the maximum assembly start rate, which in turn constrains actual assembly starts:
broj dostupnih motora i automobilskih okvira određuje i maksimalan početni omjer montiranja, koji naizmjence ograničava stvarne početke montiranja:

[Fri Oct 24 15:35:44 2003]
If either component buffer falls to zero, assembly must cease2.
Ako bilo se koji komponentni međuspremnik spusti na nulu, montiranje mora prestati 2.

[Fri Oct 24 15:37:20 2003]
These links (not shown) define two balancing feedbacks that regulate the outflows from the stocks of components and couple the stock and flow networks.
Te veze (nisu prikazane) definiraju dvije balansirajuće povratne informacije koje određuju odljev iz stokova komponenta i spajaju mreže stoka i toka.

[Fri Oct 24 15:37:44 2003]
The diagram does not represent many other information flows that must exist in the system (such as the determinants of the chassis start and completion rates);
Dijagram ne predstavlja mnoge druge tokove informacija koji moraju postojati u sustavu (kao što su naprimjer odrednice početka automobilskog okvira i omjera dovršenja);

[Fri Oct 24 15:37:44 2003]
try adding these to the map.
pokušajte ih dodati mapi.

[Fri Oct 24 15:40:57 2003]
You could of course continue to disaggregate.
biste mogli naravno nastaviti razdvajati.

[Fri Oct 24 15:50:34 2003]
The process can be broken down into more steps:
Postupak se može razdvojiti na više koraka:

[Fri Oct 24 15:51:52 2003]
The paint process, for example, actually consists of multiple activities separated by buffers such as part preparation (solvent bath), drying, spraying the first coat, drying in the oven, spraying the second coat, drying, and so on, with various inspections along the way.
Postupak se bojenja, na primjer, zapravo se sastoji od višestrukih aktivnosti koje su odvojene međuspremnicima kao na primjer priprema dijelova (posuda s otapalom), sušenje, prskanje prvog sloja boje, sušenje u pećnici, prskanje drugog sloja boje, sušenje, i tako dalje, s različitim usputnim inspekcijama.

[Fri Oct 24 15:51:52 2003]
You could also continue the parallel disaggregation by splitting the engine or chassis assembly processes into their
biste mogli nastaviti i paralelno rastavljanje odvajanjem postupaka montiranja motora ili automobilskog okvira skupština u njihov

[Fri Oct 24 16:01:19 2003]
Firms can sometimes build incomplete units and add the missing components later.
Tvrtke ponekad izgrade nepotpune jedinice i kasnije dodaju komponente koje nedostaju.

[Fri Oct 24 16:01:19 2003]
When a 1997 strike shut down a critical supplier, Ford continued to assemble its popular Explorer, storing the nearly completed cars until he missing parts became available and could be retrofitted (try modifying the diagram in Figure 6-12 to accommodate such retrofitting).
Kad je 1997 štrajk iz zatvore vrlo važnog dobavljača, Ford je nastavio sastavljati svog popularnog Explorer, spremajući u skladište skoro dovršeni automobile do dijelovi koji su nedostajali nisu postali dostupni i nisu se mogli nadograditi (pokušajte promijeniti dijagram na Slici 6-12 da bi mogli umetnuti takvo nadograđivanje).

[Fri Oct 24 16:15:31 2003]
In the limit each and every part and operation would be represented separately.
) svaki i pojedini dio i postupak bili bi prikazani odvojeno.

[Fri Oct 24 16:15:31 2003]
Obviously such a model would be just as complex as the real system, at least as hard to understand, and quite useless.
Očito bi takav model bio složen kao i kao stvarni sustav, barem podjednako težak za razumjeti, i prilično beskoristan.

[Fri Oct 24 16:16:45 2003]
Where should you stop?
Gdje biste trebali stati?

[Fri Oct 24 16:18:09 2003]
How much detail is necessary?
Koliko je detalja neophodno?

[Fri Oct 24 16:20:22 2003]
This is always a matter of judgment to be made by considering the model purpose and the needs of the client.
To je uvijek pitanje prosuđivanje koje se uvijek mora postaviti uzimajući u obzir svrhu modela i potrebe klijenta.

[Fri Oct 24 16:21:48 2003]
If the purpose is representing the lag in the response of the manufacturing system to changes in demand as part of a larger model of firm strategy, the simpler representation is probably fine.
Ako svrha predstavlja kašnjenje u reagiranju sustava proizvodnje na promjene u potražnji kao dio većeg modela čvrste strategije, jednostavniji prikaz je vjerojatno dobar.

[Fri Oct 24 16:23:49 2003]
If you seek to reengineer the flow of material through the production line, a more detailed representation is required.
Ako pokušavate ponovo provesti tok materijala kroz proizvodnu liniju, opširniji je prikaz potreban.

[Fri Oct 24 16:25:39 2003]
It is better to start with a high-level, aggregate representation and add detail if needed to address the purpose.
bolji je početi s visokim, ukupnim prikazom i dodati detalje ako je potrebno usredotočiti na svrhu.

[Fri Oct 24 16:28:31 2003]
Beginning with detailed process maps often leads to paralysis due to their complexity, data requirements, and rapid obsolescence rates.
Započinjanje s detaljnim procesnim mapama često dovodi do obamiranje zbog njihove složenosti, zahtjevima za podacima (?), i brzog omjera zastarijevanja.

[Fri Oct 24 16:28:31 2003]
The aggregate map showing only production starts, WIP, production, and finished inventory is quite stable and remains appropriate even as the details of the production process change, while a detailed map may become obsolete as new products, tooling, or process technologies are introduced.
Svekupna mapa koja prikazuje samo početke proizvodnje, WIP, proizvodnju, i zalihe gotovih proizvoda je prilično stabilna i ostaje prikladna čak i kad se promijene detalji procesa proizvodnje, iako detaljna mapa može zastarjeti kao se uvode novi proizvodi, obrađivanje (?), ili tehnologije procesa.

[Mon Oct 27 09:02:34 2003]
Guidelines for Aggregation
Smjernice za agregaciju

[Mon Oct 27 09:08:16 2003]
When is it appropriate to aggregate different activities together?
Kada je prikladno sakupiti različite aktivnosti?

[Mon Oct 27 09:09:41 2003]
To determine whether activities taking place serially can be aggregated, consider the average residence time of items in each stock (the average time between entering and exiting the stock).
Da bi utvrdili mogu li se aktivnosti koje se događaju serijski skupiti, razmotrite prosječnu vrijeme prebivališta proizvoda u svakom stoku (prosječno vrijeme između ulaska i izlaska iz stoka).

[Mon Oct 27 09:09:41 2003]
Stocks with short residence times relative to the time scale for the
Stokovi s kratkim vremenom prebivalištem u usporedbi s vremenskim okvirom za

[Mon Oct 27 09:29:29 2003]
dynamics of interest generally do not need to be represented explicitly and can either be omitted or lumped into adjacent stocks.
dinamiku od interesa općenito ne trebaju biti prikazani izričito a mogu se ili ispustiti ili pomiiješati u okolne stokove.

[Mon Oct 27 09:32:56 2003]
For example, in the long-term planning models of the US energy system developed by the US Department of Energy (Naill 1992), various stocks of undiscovered petroleum and known reserves are explicitly represented because their lifetimes range from years to decades (at current production rates).
Naprimjer, u modleima dugoročnog planiranja američkog energetskog sustava kojeg je razvilo Američko Ministarstvo za energetiku (Naill 1992), različiti stokovi nepronađenog petroleja i poznate rezerve izričito prikazani jer se njihovi životni vjekovi kreću od godina do desetljeća (na sadašnjim stopama proizvodnje).

[Mon Oct 27 09:34:19 2003]
However, stocks of crude oil and refined products in the petroleum supply chain represent only a few months of consumption.
Međutim, stokovi mazuta i rafinirani proizvodi u naftnom opskrbnom lancu prikazuju samo nekoliki mjeseci potrošnje.

[Mon Oct 27 09:34:19 2003]
In a long-term model these stocks are too short-lived to require explicit treatment.
U dugoročnom modelu ovi su stokovi su previše kratkotrajan da bi zahtijevali poseban tretman.

[Mon Oct 27 09:42:36 2003]
They fluctuate around their equilibrium values as producers, refiners, and distributors react to changes in inventory.
Fluktuiraju oko svoje vrijednosti ravnoteže, dok proizvođači rafineri, i distributeri reagiraju na promjene u zalihama.

[Mon Oct 27 09:44:21 2003]
In a model of short-term movements in spot petroleum prices, however, these stocks are critically important.
U modelu kratkoročnih kretanja u promptnim cijenama nafte, međutim, ti stokovi su od ključne važnosti.

[Mon Oct 27 09:46:39 2003]
A good model would represent the key stocks in the petroleum supply chain explicitly, perhaps even including a separate stock for the inventory of gasoline at retail service stations and the inventory of gasoline in the tanks of cars on the road.
Dobar model bi predstavljao ključne stokove u naftnom opskrbnom lancu posebno, možda čak uključivao poseban stok za zalihe benzina na maloprodajnim benzinskim crpkama i zalihe benzina u spremnicima automobila na cesti.

[Mon Oct 27 09:46:39 2003]
On the other hand, a short-term spot price model need not include petroleum reserves or undiscovered resources, as these stocks change too slowly to influence the spot market over a time horizon of a year.
S druge strane, model kratkoročne promptne cijene ne treba obuhvaćati naftne rezerve ili neotkrivene resurse, budući da ovi stokovi se mijenjaju previše polako da bi utjecali na slobodno tržište tijekom vremenskog horizonta godine.

[Mon Oct 27 10:00:21 2003]
Parallel activities can legitimately be aggregated together if the individual flows are governed by similar decision rules and if the time the different items spend in the individual stocks is similar.
Usporedne se aktivnosti mogu zakonito skupljati ako pojedinim tokovima upravljaju sličnim pravilima odlučivanja i ako je vrijeme kojeg različiti proizvodi provode u pojedinim stokovima slično.

[Mon Oct 27 10:01:10 2003]
For example, it is often appropriate to aggregate the many parts required to manufacture a product into a small number of categories since they are usually ordered using the same procedures and their delivery lead times and residence times in parts inventories generally don't differ too much.
Naprimjer, često je prikladno skupiti mnoge dijelove koji su potrebni da bi se proizvod preradio u manji broj kategorija budući da su obično naručene upotrebljavajući iste postupke i njihova se vremena isporuke i vremena prebivališta općenito ne razlikuju previše u zalihama dijelova.

[Mon Oct 27 10:09:05 2003]
In contrast, plant and equipment sometimes must be disaggregated.
Nasuprot tome, postrojenje i oprema ponekad se moraju razdvojiti.

[Mon Oct 27 10:09:05 2003]
Their lifetimes are very different, and the decision rules for new green-field facilities differ substantially from those used to order equipment for existing facilities due to differences in lead times, costs, financing, permitting, and regulatory issues.
Njihovi životni vjekovi su vrlo različiti, i pravila odlučivanja za potpuno nova-postrojenja se razlikuju prilično od onih koja se obično koriste za naručivanje opreme za postojeća postrojenja zbog razlika u vremenima protoka, tročkovima, pitanja financiranja, dozvoljavanja, i reguliranja.

[Mon Oct 27 10:24:08 2003]
As a rule of thumb, clients generally want to see more detail in a model than the modeler thinks is needed, and modelers, in turn, generally overestimate the detail necessary to capture the dynamics of interest.
Kao pravilo potvrđeno u praksi, klijenti općenito žele vidjeti više detalja u modelu nego što modelar smatra da je potrebno, pa modelari, redom, općenito precjenjuju detalj nužan za shvaćanje dinamike od interesa.

[Mon Oct 27 10:26:14 2003]
Of course, the amount of detail needed to capture the dynamics relevant to the client's purpose and the amount of detail needed to give the client confidence in the results are two different things.
Naravno, količina detalja potrebna za shvaćanje dinamike relevantne za svrhu klijenta i količina detalja koja je potrebna da bi se klijentu pružilo povjerenje u rezultate dviju različitih stvari.

[Mon Oct 27 10:27:09 2003]
Roberts ( 1977/ 1978) estimated that clients often require twice as much detail as the modeler feels is needed to feel comfortable with and accept a model as a basis for action, and in my experience this is often an underestimate.
Roberts (1977/1978) je procijenio da klijenti često zahtijevaju dvostruko više detalja nego što modelar smatra da je potrebno da bi se osjećali ugodno s i prihvatili model kao temelj za djelovanje, i prema mom iskustvu to je često omalovažavanje.

[Mon Oct 27 10:34:49 2003]
Success requires you to include the detail necessary to satisfy the client.
Uspjeh od vas zahtijeva da uključite detalje koji su potrebni da bi se klijent zadovoljio.

[Mon Oct 27 10:34:49 2003]
But this does not mean you should acquiesce to all client demands for more detail-you will end up with an expensive and useless black box.
No to ne znači da biste trebali popustiti svim zahtjevima klijenta za više detalja-na kraju ćete biti suočeni sa skupim i beskorisnim nerazumljivim sustavom.

[Mon Oct 27 10:43:27 2003]
You must work with the client to understand why excessive detail is often unnecessary.
Morate surađivati s klijentom da bi razumjeli zašto je često nepotrebna velika količina detalja.

[Mon Oct 27 10:43:57 2003]
Often, models end up with too much detail, but as the client gains confidence and understanding of the important feedbacks driving the dynamics, the excess structure can be eliminated, resulting in a simpler, more easily maintained, and more useful model (Randers 1980).
Često, modeli završe s prevelikom količinom detalja, no kako klijenti stječu povjerenje i razumijevanje važnih povratnih informacija koje pokreću dinamiku, preopširna se struktura može eliminirati, pa tako nastaje jednostavniji, lakše održiv, i korisniji model (Randers 1980).

[Mon Oct 27 10:45:33 2003]
Still, Roberts is correct:
No ipak, Roberts je u pravu:

[Mon Oct 27 10:46:24 2003]
"You must provide the level of detail that causes [the client] to be persuaded that you have properly taken into account his issues, his questions, his level of concerns.
" morate osigurati razinu detalja koja uvjerava [klijenta] da valjano ste uzeli u obzir njegove probleme, njegova pitanja, njegovu razinu zabrinutosti.

[Mon Oct 27 10:46:25 2003]
Otherwise he will not believe the model you have built, he will not accept it, and he will not use it" (p.
U protivnom neće vjerovati u model kojeg ste napravili, neće ga prihvatiti, i neće ga upotrijebiti " (str.

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