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NeuroTran® prijevodi poredani kronološki:
[Mon Oct 20 12:00:11 2003]
It's a good thing it isn't:
Dobro je da nije:
[Mon Oct 20 12:00:11 2003]
A map as detailed as the territory would be of no use (as well as being hard to fold).
Mapa kao detaljan poput teritorij ne bi bila od koristi (a bilo bi ju i teško saviti).
[Mon Oct 20 12:11:20 2003]
It provides the criteria to decide what can be ignored so that only the essential features necessary to fulfil the purpose are left.
Pruža kriterije za odlučivanje o tome što se može zanemariti tako da preostaju samo ključna obilježja neophodna za ostvarenje svrhe.
[Mon Oct 20 12:13:50 2003]
In the example above, since the purpose of the comprehensive model would be to represent the entire economic system, nothing could be excluded.
U gornjem primjeru, budući da bi svrha opsežnog modela bila da predstavlja cjelokupni ekonomski sustav, ništa se ne bi moglo isključiti.
[Mon Oct 20 12:15:59 2003]
Because its scope and boundary are so broad, the model could never be completed.
Jer njegov raspon i granica si tako širok, da se model bi mogao nikad dovršiti.
[Mon Oct 20 12:16:59 2003]
If it were, the data required to use it could never be completed.
Ako bi se dovršio, podaci potrebni za njegovu primjenu nikad se bi mogli dovršiti.
[Mon Oct 20 12:19:00 2003]
If they were, the model's underlying assumptions could never be examined or tested.
Ako bi se dovršili, temeljni pretpostavke modela se nikad ne bi mogle pregledati niti testirati.
[Mon Oct 20 12:20:19 2003]
If they were, the model builders could never understand its behavior and the clients' confidence in it would depend on the authority of the modeler and other nonscientific grounds.
Ako bi se mogle, graditelji modela bi mogli nikad razumjeti njegovo ponašanje i klijenata povjerenje u njega bi ovisilo o nadležnosti modelara i o ostalim neznanstvenim osnovama.
[Mon Oct 20 12:20:19 2003]
Mihailo Mesarovic, a developer of early
Mihajlo Mesarovic, razvijatelj ranih
[Mon Oct 20 12:41:48 2003]
global simulations, captured the impossibility of building models of systems when he said, "No matter how many resources one has, one can envision a complex enough model to render resources insufficient to the task."
globalnih simulacija, iznio je nemogućnost izgradnje modela sustava kad je rekao, " Bez obzira koliko sredstava netko ima, on može predvidjeti toliko složen model koji bi učinio sredstva nedovoljnima za zadatak."
[Mon Oct 20 12:41:48 2003]
(Meadows, Richardson, and Bruckmann 1982, p. 197).
" (Meadows, Richardson, i Bruckmann 1982, str. 197).
[Mon Oct 20 12:53:57 2003]
A model designed for a particular purpose such as understanding the business cycle or global climate change would be much smaller, since it would be limited to those factors believed to be relevant to the question at hand.
model namijenjen za određen svrhu kao što je shvaćanje poslovni ciklus ili globalne klimatske promjene bio bi puno manji, budući da bi bio ograničen na one čimbenike za koje se vjeruje da su važni za pitanje koje je pri ruci.
[Mon Oct 20 12:54:37 2003]
For example, the business cycle model need not include long-term trends in population growth, resource depletion, or climate change.
Na primjer, model poslovnog ciklusa ne treba obuhvaćati dugoročne trendove u rastu stanovništva, iscrpljenju sredstava ili klimatskoj promjeni.
[Mon Oct 20 12:55:27 2003]
The global warming mode could exclude
Vrsta globalnog zagrijavanja bi mogla isključiti
[Mon Oct 20 12:56:19 2003]
short-term dynamics related to interest rates, employment, and inventories.
kratkoročna dinamika koja je povezana s kamatniim stopama, zapošljavanjem i robnim fondovima.
[Mon Oct 20 12:58:43 2003]
The resulting models could be simple enough so that their assumptions could be examined.
Rezultirajući modeli bi mogli biti toliko jednostavni da bi se njihove pretpostavke mogle pregledati.
[Mon Oct 20 12:59:22 2003]
The relation of these assumptions to the most important theories regarding the business cycle and climate change could then be assessed to determine how useful the models were for their intended purposes.
Odnos bi se ovih pretpostavki s najvažnijim teorijama koje se tiču poslovnog ciklusa i klimatske promjene zatim mogao procijeniti da bi se utvrdilo koliko su bili korisni modeli za svoje namijenjene svrhe.
[Mon Oct 20 12:59:22 2003]
Of course even models with well-defined purposes can be too large.
Dakako čak i modeli s dobro-definiranim svrhama mogu biti preveliki.
[Mon Oct 20 14:09:34 2003]
In sum:
Kratko rečeno:
[Mon Oct 20 14:09:45 2003]
Always:
Uvijek:
[Mon Oct 20 14:09:56 2003]
model a problem.
modelirajte problem.
[Mon Oct 20 14:09:56 2003]
Never model a system.
Nikad ne modelirajte sustav.
[Mon Oct 20 14:16:29 2003]
Usually the modeler develops the initial characterization of the problem through discussion with the client team, supplemented by archival research, data collection, interviews, and direct observation or participation.
Obično modelar razvije početnu karakterizaciju problema kroz raspravi s ekipom za klijente, koja je dopunjena arhivskim istraživanjem, prikupljanjem podataka, intervjuima, i izravnim opažanjem ili sudjelovanjem.
[Mon Oct 20 14:18:08 2003]
There are many methods available to work with a group to elicit the information needed to define the problem dynamically while still keeping the conversation focused firmly on the clients and their problem.
Postoje mnoge metode koje su dostupne za rad s grupom da bi se dobili podaci potrebni za utvđivanje problema na dinamičan način održavajući još uvijek razgovor usredotočenim čvrsto na klijente i njihov problem.
[Mon Oct 20 14:18:08 2003]
Two of the most useful processes are establishing reference modes and explicitly setting the time horizon.
Dva najkorisnija postupka utemeljuju referentne načine i izričito određuju vremenski horizont.
[Mon Oct 20 14:23:48 2003]
System dynamics modelers seek to characterize the problem dynamically, that is, as a pattern of behavior, unfolding over time, which shows how the problem arose and how it might evolve in the future.
modelari Dinamika sustava nastoje označiti problem dinamički, odnosno, kao uzorak ponašanja, koji se širi s vremenom, koji pokazuje kako problem je nastao i kako bi mogao razvijati u budućnosti.
[Mon Oct 20 14:25:36 2003]
You should develop a reference mode.
biste trebali razviti referentni način,
[Mon Oct 20 14:41:58 2003]
literally a set of graphs and other descriptive data showing the development of the problem over time.
biste trebali razviti referentni način, što doslovno znači skupina grafova i ostali opisni podaci koji prikazuju razvoj problema s vremenom.
[Mon Oct 20 14:45:20 2003]
Reference modes (so-called because you refer back to them throughout the modeling process) help you and your clients break out of the short-term event-oriented worldview so many people have.
Referentni načini (tako nazvani jer se ponovo vraćate na njih kroz postupak modeliranja) pomažu da se vi i vaši klijenti oslobodite kratkoročnog svjetonazora orijentiranog na događaje kojeg tako mnogi ljudi imaju.
[Mon Oct 20 14:45:20 2003]
To do so you and the clients must identify the time horizon and define those variables and concepts you consider to be important for understanding the problem and designing policies to solve it.
Da biste to postigli vi i klijenti morate prepoznati vremenski horizont i odrediti one varijable i ideje koje smatrate važnima za razumijevanje problem i oblikovanje smjernice koje će ga riješiti.
[Mon Oct 20 14:54:59 2003]
The time horizon should extend far enough back in history to show how the problem emerged and describe its symptoms.
Vrijeme horizont bi trebao protezati dovoljno daleko u povijest da bi pokazao kako problem se pojavio i opisao njegove simptome.
[Mon Oct 20 14:57:00 2003]
It should extend far enough into the future to capture the delayed and indirect effects of potential policies.
Trebao bi se protezati dovoljno daleko u budućnost da bi obuhvatio odgođen i neizravni učinke potencijalnih smjernica.
[Mon Oct 20 14:57:00 2003]
Most people dramatically underestimate the length of time delay and select time horizons that
Većina ljudi vrlo izrazito podcjenjuju trajanje vremena odgode i odabiru vremenske horizonte koji
[Mon Oct 20 15:02:28 2003]
A principal deficiency in our mental models is our tendency to think of cause and effect as local and immediate.
Glavni nedostatak kod naših mentalnih modela je naša sklonost mišljenju da su uzrok i učinak lokalni i izravni.
[Mon Oct 20 15:05:54 2003]
But in dynamically complex systems, cause and effect are distant in time and space.
No u dinamički složenim sustavima, uzrok i učinak su udaljeni vremenom i prostorom.
[Mon Oct 20 15:08:51 2003]
Most of the unintended effects of decisions leading to policy resistance involve feedbacks with long delays, far removed from the point of decision or the problem symptom.
Većina nenamjernih učinaka odluka koji dovode do otpora smjernice uključuju povratne informacije s dugačkim odgodama, daleko udaljenima od točke odluke ili simptoma problem.
[Mon Oct 20 15:13:16 2003]
Work with your clients to think about the possible reactions to policies and how long they might take to play out and then increase the time horizon even further.
Surađujte sa svojim klijentima da bi razmislili o mogućim reakcijama na smjernice i o tome koliko bi im moglo trebati da se privedu kraju i tada povećaju vremenski horizont još više.
[Mon Oct 20 15:13:16 2003]
A long time horizon is a critical antidote to the event-oriented worldview so crippling to our ability to identify patterns of behavior and the feedback structures generating them.
dugačak vremenski horizont je presudan protusredstvo za-svjetonazor orijentiran na događaje koji je tako štetan za našu sposobnost prepoznavanja uzoraka ponašanja i struktura povratne informacije koji ih stvaraju.
[Mon Oct 20 15:19:11 2003]
Once the problem has been identified and characterized over an appropriate time horizon, modelers must begin to develop a theory, called a dynamic hypothesis, to
Kad je jednom problem prepoznat i okarakteriziran kroz odgovarajući vremenski horizont, modelari moraju početi razviti teoriju, nazvanu dinamička hipoteza, da bi
[Mon Oct 20 15:24:49 2003]
account for the problematic behavior.
objasnili problematično ponašanje.
[Mon Oct 20 15:26:39 2003]
It is a hypothesis because it is always provisional, subject to revision or abandonment as you learn from the modeling process and from the real world.
Radi se o hipoteza jer je uvijek privremena, podvrgnuta preispitivanju ili napuštanje budući da učite od postupka modeliranja i od stvarnog svijeta.
[Mon Oct 20 15:31:20 2003]
A dynamic hypothesis is a working theory of how the problem arose.
Dinamička je pretpostavka radna teorija o tome kako je problem nastao.
[Mon Oct 20 15:34:24 2003]
A dynamic hypothesis is a working theory of how the problem arose.
Dinamična je pretpostavka radna teorija o tome kako je problem nastao.
[Mon Oct 20 15:36:22 2003]
It guides modeling efforts by focusing you and your clients on certain structures.
usmjerava nastojanja modeliranje usredotočavajući vas i vaše klijente na određene strukture.
[Mon Oct 20 15:39:09 2003]
Much of the remainder of the modeling process helps you to test the dynamic hypothesis, both with the simulation model and by experiments and data collection in the real world.
Velik dio podsjetnika postupka modeliranja pomaže vam da ispitate dinamičku hipotezu, i sa simulacijskim modelom i pokusima i prikupljanjem podataka u stvarnom svijetu.
[Mon Oct 20 15:40:30 2003]
you need to acknowledge and capture them all.
trebate ih sve priznati i usvojiti.
[Mon Oct 20 16:00:01 2003]
Early in the modeling process, the modeler needs to act as a facilitator, capturing these mental models without criticizing or filtering them.
rano u postupak modeliranje, modelar treba djelovati kao koordinator, usvajajući te mentalne modele bez kritiziranja ili mijenjanja (?).
[Mon Oct 20 16:05:23 2003]
Clarifying and probing questions are often useful, but the modeler's role during this early phase is to be a thoughtful listener, not a content expert.
Razjašnjiva i ispitivačka pitanja često su korisna, no uloga modelara tijekom ove rane faze je uloga pažljivog slušatelja, ne zadovoljnog stručnjaka.
[Mon Oct 20 16:06:12 2003]
Your goal is to help the client develop an endogenous explanation for the problematic dynamics.
Vaš je cilj pomoći klijentu da razvije endogeno objašnjenje za problematičnu dinamiku.
[Mon Oct 20 16:13:04 2003]
System dynamics seeks endogenous explanations for phenomena.
Dinamika sustava traži endogena objašnjenja za fenomene.
[Mon Oct 20 16:18:58 2003]
The word "endogenous" means "arising from within."
Riječ " endogen " znači " koji nastaje iznutra."
[Mon Oct 20 16:26:49 2003]
In contrast, a theory relying on exogenous variables (those "arising from without," that is, from outside the boundary of the model) explains the dynamics of variables you care about in terms of other variables whose behavior you've assumed.
Suprotno tome, teorija koja se oslanja na egzogene varijable (one " nastaju izvana, " odnosno, s vanjske strane granice modela) objašnjava dinamiku varijabla do koje vam je stalo u odnosu na ostale varijable čije ste ponašanje pretpostavili.
[Mon Oct 20 16:31:30 2003]
Exogenous explanations are really no explanation at all;
Egzogena objašnjenja ustvari nisu uopće objašnjenja;
[Mon Oct 20 16:32:23 2003]
they simply beg the question, What caused the exogenous variables to change as they did?
ona jednostavno postavljaju sljedeće pitanje, Što je uzrokovalo da se egzogene varijable promijene na način na koji su se promijenile?
[Mon Oct 20 16:33:51 2003]
The focus in system dynamics on endogenous explanations does not mean you should never include any exogenous variables in your models.
Težište u dinamici sustava na endogena objašnjenja ne znači da nikad ne biste trebali uključivati bilo kakve egzogene varijable u svoje modele.
[Tue Oct 21 09:58:02 2003]
there are in fact any important feedbacks from the endogenous elements for the candidate.
postoje li ustvari neke važne povratne informacije iz endogenih elemenata za to što bi moglo predstavljati endogeni unos.
[Tue Oct 21 09:58:02 2003]
If so, the boundary of the model must be expanded and the variable must be modeled endogenously.
Ako postoje, granica modela se mora proširiti i varijabla se mora oblikovati endogeno.
[Tue Oct 21 10:13:09 2003]
A typical example is provided by the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) model, a hybrid model based on linear programming, econometrics, and input/output analysis used in the 1970s by the US Federal Energy Administration (FEA) and later by the US Department of Energy.
Tipičan primjer je iz Projekta Neovisnosti Procjene Sustava (PIES) model, mješovit model koji se temelji na linearnom programiranju, ekonometrija, i analiza unosa/izlaza koju su koristili u sedamdesete Američka savezna administracija za energiju (FEA) i kasnije Ministarstva Energetike SAD-a.
[Tue Oct 21 10:14:18 2003]
their impact on the development of alternative energy sources;
njihov utjecaj na razvoj alternativnih izvora energije;
[Tue Oct 21 10:14:25 2003]
their impact on economic growth, inflation, and unemployment;
njihov utjecaj na gospodarski rast, inflaciju, i nezaposlenost;
[Tue Oct 21 10:17:15 2003]
their regional and social impacts;
njihov regionalni i društveni utjecaji;
[Tue Oct 21 10:17:38 2003]
their vulnerability to import disruptions;
njihova podložnost prekidima;
[Tue Oct 21 10:17:38 2003]
and their environmental effects.
i njihovi ekološki učinci.
[Tue Oct 21 10:35:53 2003]
The model economy (including economic growth, interest rates, inflation, world oil prices, and the costs of unconventional fuels) was completely unaffected by the energy situation (including prices, policies, and production).
Primjerna ekonomija (uključujući gospodarski rast, kamatne stope, inflaciju, cijene svjetskog ulja, i troškove nekonvencionalnih goriva) je bila potpuno nezahvaćena energetska situacija (uključujuće cijene, politike, i proizvodnja).
[Tue Oct 21 10:36:19 2003]
In the model, even a full embargo of imported oil or a doubling of oil prices
U modelu, čak i potpun embargo uvoznog ulja ili udvostručavanje cijena ulja
[Tue Oct 21 10:36:19 2003]
would have no impact on the economy.
ne bi utjecao na ekonomiju.
[Tue Oct 21 11:00:22 2003]
Treating the economy exogenously made the PIES model inherently contradictory.
Budući da je PIES model ekonomiju smatrao egzogenom, to ga je učinilo bitno proturječnim.
[Tue Oct 21 11:04:15 2003]
Because it assumed high rates of economic growth and low price elasticities, it projected huge increases in energy demand, requiring even greater increases in the capital requirements of the energy sector as cheap domestic oil was consumed.
S obzirom da je poprimio visoke cijene gospodarskog rasta i jeftine prilagodljivosti (?), izazvao je golem porast u energetskoj potražnji, zahtijevajući čak veća povećanja u zahtjevima za kapitalom energetskog sektora budući da se koristilo jeftina domaće nafta.
[Tue Oct 21 11:11:27 2003]
In the model, these huge investments in energy production were satisfied without reducing investment or consumption in the rest of the economy and with no impact on interest rates or inflation.
U modelu, ta golema investiranja u energetsku proizvodnju su zadovoljena bez smanjivanja ulaganja ili potrošnje u ostalom dijelu ekonomije i bez utjecaja na kamatne stope ili inflaciju.
[Tue Oct 21 11:11:27 2003]
In effect, the model let the economy have its pie and eat it too.
U stvari, model je ekonomiji omogućio da ima ovce i novce.
[Tue Oct 21 11:19:52 2003]
In part because it ignored the feedbacks between the energy sector and the rest of the economy, the PIES model consistently proved to be overoptimistic.
Djelomično zato što je zanemario povratne informacije između energetskog sektorska i ostatka ekonomije, PIES model dosljedno se pokazao kao previše optimističan.
[Tue Oct 21 11:22:40 2003]
In 1974 the model projected that by 1985 the US would be well on the way to energy independence:
1974 model je prognozirao da do 1985 SAD- biti na dobrom putu prema energetskoj neovisnosti:
[Tue Oct 21 11:28:52 2003]
It didn't happen.
To se nije dogodilo.
[Tue Oct 21 11:36:25 2003]
Imports in the late 1980s were about 5.5 million barrels per day and grew to more than half of oil consumption by the mid 1990s.
Uvozi su u kasnim 1980-ima bili oko 5,5 milijuna barela na dan i porasli na više od polovice naftne potrošnje do sredine 1990-tih.
[Tue Oct 21 11:45:15 2003]
Shale oil and other exotic synfuels never materialized.
Nafta iz škriljevca i ostala egzotična umjetna goriva nikad nisu materijalizirana.
[Tue Oct 21 11:45:15 2003]
This situation prevailed despite huge reductions in oil demand caused by oil prices in the early 1980s greater than $30/bbl and the most serious recession since the Great Depression.
Takva situacija je prevladala unatoč golemim smanjenjima u naftnoj potražnji koja su uzrokovale cijene nafte u ranim 1980s veće od 30/barel i najozbiljnije recesija od Velike depresija.
[Tue Oct 21 11:57:40 2003]
A broad model boundary that captures important feedbacks is more important than a lot of detail in the specification of individual components.
Opsežna granica modela koja uključuje važne povratne informacije je važnija od mnogih potankosti u specifikaciji pojedinačnih komponenta.
[Tue Oct 21 12:01:29 2003]
It is worth noting that the PIES model provided a breakdown of supply, demand, and price for dozens of fuels in each region of the country yet its aggregate projections weren't even close.
Vrijedno je spomenuti da PIES model prouzročio raspad zaliha, potražnje, i cijena za desetak vrsta goriva u svaku regiji zemlje no ipak njegov ukupne predviđanje nisu bile čak ni blizu.
[Tue Oct 21 12:01:29 2003]
What purpose was served by the effort devoted to forecasting the demand for jet fuel or naphtha in the Pacific Northwest when the basic assumptions were so palpably inadequate and the main results were so woefully erroneous?
Kakva je bila svrha nastojanja posvećenog predviđanju potražnje za mlazno gorivo ili ligroin na pacifičkom sjeverozapadu kad su osnovne pretpostavke bile tako očigledno nezadovoljavajući i glavni rezultati tako strašno pogrešni?
[Tue Oct 21 12:23:42 2003]
System dynamics includes a variety of tools to help you communicate the boundary of your model and represent its causal structure.
Dinamika sustava uključuje različita sredstava koja vam pomažu da obavijestite (?) o granici svog modela i predstavite njegovu uzročnu strukturu.
[Tue Oct 21 12:23:42 2003]
These include model boundary diagrams, subsystem diagrams, causal loop diagrams, and stock and flow maps.
To uključuje dijagrame granice modela, dijagrame podsustava, dijagrame uzročnih petlji, i mape stoka i toka.
[Tue Oct 21 12:25:14 2003]
Model boundary chart
Granica modela modela prikaz
[Tue Oct 21 12:36:35 2003]
To illustrate, Table 3-2 shows a model boundary diagram for a model designed to study the feedbacks between the energy system and the economy (Sterman 1983).
Za objašnjenje pogledajte Tablicu 3-2 koja prikazuje dijagram granice modela za model koji je napravljen za proučavanje povratne informacije između energetskog sustava i ekonomije (Sterman 1983).
[Tue Oct 21 12:41:46 2003]
Partly in reaction to the limitations of existing models such as PIES, the Department of Energy in the late 1970s sought to develop dynamic models with a broader boundary (Naill1977 , 1992).
Dijelom zbog reakcije na ograničenja postojećih modela kao što su PIES, Ministarstvo Energetike u kasnim 1970-ima je pokušalo razviti dinamičke modele sa širom granicom (Naill 1977, 1992).
[Tue Oct 21 12:55:50 2003]
In contrast to nearly all models used to address these issues at the time, the model had a broad boundary, with all major macroeconomic variables generated endogenously.
U suprotnosti s gotovo svim modelima koji su upotrebljeni za bavljenje tim pitanjama u to vrijeme, model je imao široku granicu, sa svim glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje su stvorene endogeno.
[Tue Oct 21 12:55:50 2003]
Unlike the PIES model, the capital, labor, and energy requirements
Za razliku od PIES modela, kapital, radna snaga, i potrebe za energijom
[Tue Oct 21 14:10:23 2003]
Consumption
Potrošnja
[Tue Oct 21 14:12:54 2003]
Labor force participation
Radna snaga sudjelovanje
[Tue Oct 21 14:18:52 2003]
Population
Stanovništvo
[Tue Oct 21 14:19:04 2003]
Technological change
Tehnološka promjena
[Tue Oct 21 14:19:16 2003]
Tax rates
Porezne stope
[Tue Oct 21 14:20:56 2003]
Inventories
zalihe
[Tue Oct 21 14:21:17 2003]
International trade
Međunarodna trgovina
[Tue Oct 21 14:21:39 2003]
except with OPEC
osim s OPEC-om
[Tue Oct 21 14:22:35 2003]
Environmental constraints
Ekološka ograničenja
[Tue Oct 21 14:24:36 2003]
Nonenergy resources
Neenergetski izvori
[Tue Oct 21 14:29:59 2003]
Distributional equity
Distribucijski kapital
[Tue Oct 21 14:34:48 2003]
of the energy industries were endogenous and the energy industry had to compete against other sectors for these resources.
energetskih industrija su bili endogeni pa se energetska industrija morala za te izvore natjecati s ostalim sektorima.
[Tue Oct 21 14:36:10 2003]
The model still contained several exogenous variables.
Model je još uvijek sadržavao nekoliko egzogenih varijabli.
[Tue Oct 21 14:36:31 2003]
These include population, the rate of overall technological progress, and the price of imported oil.
One uključuju stanovništvo, stopu sveukupnog tehnološkog razvoja, i cijenu uvozne nafte.
[Tue Oct 21 14:45:08 2003]
Were these exogenous variables acceptable?
Jesu li te egzogene varijable bile prihvatljive?
[Tue Oct 21 14:48:21 2003]
Population growth and the overall rate of technical progress might be affected by changes in energy prices and consequent changes in the rate of economic growth.
Na porast Stanovništvo i sveukupan stopa tehničkog napretka bi mogle djelovati promjene u cijenama energenata i proizlazeće promjene u stopi ekonomskog rasta.
[Tue Oct 21 14:49:25 2003]
However, these feedbacks seemed likely to be small.
Međutim, vrlo je vjerojatno da su te povratne informacije male.
[Tue Oct 21 14:51:01 2003]
The decision to model the price of imported oil exogenously is more problematic.
Odluka da se modelira cijena uvozne nafte egzogeno je problematičnije.
[Tue Oct 21 14:59:18 2003]
Clearly the price of oil affects both the demand for and supply of energy in the United States, determining the quantity imported.
Očito cijena nafte utječe i na potražnja i na zalihu energije u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, određujući uvezenu količinu.
[Tue Oct 21 14:59:18 2003]
As a major importer, changes in US oil imports can dramatically alter the supply/demand balance of the oil exporting nations, feeding back to the price of oil in the world market.
Kao glavni uvoznik, promjene u američkom uvozu nafte mogu dramatično promijeniti bilancu zalihe/potražnje naroda koji izvoze naftu, davajući povratnu informaciju cijeni nafte na svjetskom tržištu.
[Tue Oct 21 15:08:39 2003]
Treating import prices exogenously cuts an important feedback loop.
Postupanje s uvoznim cijenama na egzogen način presjeca važnu petlju povratne veze.
[Tue Oct 21 15:12:50 2003]
In discussing the boundary of the model I argued that there were in fact important feedbacks between the US energy system and the world oil market.
U raspravljanju o granici modela tvrdio sam da su postojale ustvari važne povratne informacije između američkog energetskog sustava i svjetskog naftnog tržište.
[Tue Oct 21 15:14:43 2003]
But I also argued that the dynamics of the world price were so complex that incorporating them endogenously was beyond the scope and purpose of the project.
Osim toga tvrdio sam i da su dinamike svjetske cijene bile toliko složen da je njihovo endogene uključivanje (?) bilo izvan okvira i svrhe projekta.
[Tue Oct 21 15:19:20 2003]
I had previously helped build a model of the world oil market for the US Department of Energy and hoped that ultimately the two models could be joined.
Prije sam bio pomagao izgraditi model svjetskog naftnog tržišta za Američko ministarstvo energetike i nadao se da će se naposljetku dva modela moći spojiti.
[Tue Oct 21 15:19:20 2003]
The model boundary chart alerted the clients to a questionable assumption so they could evaluate what the effect of the missing feedback might be.
Prikaz granice modela upozorio je klijente na upitnu pretpostavku da mogu ocijeniti kakav bi mogao biti učinak povratne informacije koja nedostaje.
[Tue Oct 21 15:25:59 2003]
The list of excluded concepts also provides important warnings to the model user.
Popis isključenih pojmova navodi i važna upozorenja za korisnika modela.
[Tue Oct 21 15:28:54 2003]
The model omitted inventories of goods and materials (and hence short-term business cycles)-no problem in such a long-term model.
Model je izostavio zalihe robe i materijala (i stoga kratkoročne poslovni cikluse)-to nije bio problem u takvom dugoročnom modelu.
[Tue Oct 21 15:34:27 2003]
International trade was excluded, except for the flows of oil, goods, capital, and money between the US and the oil exporting nations.
Međunarodna trgovina je bila isključena, osim tokova nafte, robe, kapital, i novac između SAD-a i zemalja koje izvoze naftu.
[Tue Oct 21 15:39:15 2003]
The petrodollars flowing to OPEC and their recycling as exports or foreign investment had to be included, but to include nonenergy trade would have expanded the model into a global macroeconomic system, and I would probably still be working on it.
Petrodolari koji su tekli OPEC-u i njihovo recikliranje kao izvozi ili strano ulaganje moralo se obuhvatiti, no obuhvaćanje bi neenergetske trgovine proširilo model u globalni makroekonomski sustav, i ja bi vjerojatno još uvijek radio na tome.
[Tue Oct 21 15:39:15 2003]
Environmental constraints and nonenergy resources such as water that might limit new energy sources like synfuels were excluded, meaning conclusions about the rate of development of these exotic energy sources would be overoptimistic.
Ograničenja u okolišu i neenergetski resursi kao što su voda koji su mogli ograničiti nove izvore energije kao što su umjetna goriva isključena, značajni zaključci o stopi razvoja ovih egzotičnih izvora energije bi bili previše optimistični.
[Tue Oct 21 15:47:25 2003]
The model also treated the energy system in a fairly aggregate fashion, so interfuel substitution (oil vs.
Model također je postupao s energetskim sustavom na prilično zbrkan način, pa tako zamjena goriva (nafta za.
[Tue Oct 21 15:51:37 2003]
gas, for example), was not considered, another optimistic assumption.
plin, na primjer), nije uzeta u obzir, još jedna optimistična pretpostavka.
[Tue Oct 21 15:54:48 2003]
Finally, the model did not consider income distribution, even though some energy policies such as gasoline taxes are regressive unless offset by changes in the income tax code.
Konačno, model nije razmatrao dohodovnu distribuciju, iako su neke energetske politike kao što su porezi na benzin ste regresivne ukoliko ih se ne nadoknadi promjenama u kodeksa poreza na dohodak.
[Tue Oct 21 16:03:49 2003]
Model boundary diagrams are surprisingly useful and shockingly rare.
Dijagrami granice modela ste iznenađujuće korisni i strašno rijetki.
[Tue Oct 21 16:08:04 2003]
Often, models are used not as tools of inquiry but as weapons in a war of advocacy.
Često, se modeli ne koriste kao sredstva istrage već kao oružje u ratu zagovaranja (?).
[Tue Oct 21 16:12:58 2003]
In such cases modelers seek to hide the assumptions of their models from potential critics.
U takvim slučajevima modelari nastoje sakriti pretpostavke svojih modela od potencijalnih kritičara.
[Tue Oct 21 16:17:32 2003]
But even when the modelers' motives are benign, many feel uncomfortable listing what they've left out, see the omissions as flaws and prefer to stress the strengths of their model.
No čak i kad su motivi modelara dobronamjerni, mnogi se osjećaju neugodno kad se ispisuje ono što su izostavili, shvaćaju izostavljenje dijelove pogrešnima i radije ističu prednosti njihovih modela.
[Tue Oct 21 16:20:11 2003]
While this tendency is natural, it undercuts the utility of your model and weakens the ability of people to learn from and improve your work.
Iako je to prirodno, iapk potkopava korisnost vašeg model i smanjuje sposobnost ljudi da iz vašeg rada nešto nauče i poboljšaju ga.
[Tue Oct 21 16:34:01 2003]
models constructed for one purpose are frequently used for another for which they are ill-suited, sometimes producing absurd results.
modeli napravljeni za jednu svrhu često koriste za neku drugu svrhu za koju su neprikladni-, pa ponekad daju besmislene rezultate.
[Tue Oct 21 16:34:05 2003]
see also Meadows and Robinson 1985).
vidi također Meadows i Robinson 1985).
[Tue Oct 21 16:44:32 2003]
A subsystem diagram shows the overall architecture of a model.
Dijagram podsustava prikazuje cjelokupnu strukturu modela.
[Tue Oct 21 16:47:21 2003]
Each major subsystem is shown along with the flows of material, money, goods, information, and so on coupling the subsystems to one another.
Svaki važniji podsustav prikazan je zajedno s tokovima materijala, novca, robe, podataka, i tako dalje povezujuću podsustave jednog s drugim.
[Tue Oct 21 16:49:45 2003]
Subsystems can be organizations such as the firm and the customer or organizational subunits such as operations, marketing, and product development.
Podsustavi mogu biti organizacije kao što su tvrtka i klijent ili organizacijske podjedinice kao što su poslovanja, marketing i razvoj proizvoda.
[Tue Oct 21 16:51:08 2003]
Subsystem diagrams convey information on the boundary and level of aggregation in the model by showing the number and type of different organizations or agents represented.
Dijagrami podsustava prenose informacije o granici i razini gomilanja u model prikazujući broj i vrstu različitih organizacija ili agenti koji su predstavljeni.
[Tue Oct 21 17:07:21 2003]
In the 19605 Jay Forrester served on the boards of several successful high-tech companies and became interested in the dynamics of corporate growth.
U 1960-ima, Jay Forrester je radio za odbore nekoliko uspješne visokotehnoloških tvrtki i zainteresirao se za dinamiku korporacijskog razvoja.
[Tue Oct 21 17:08:29 2003]
To help him think about the strategic issues facing these firms, Forrester ( 1964, p. 32) created a model designed "to show how the differing kinds of corporate growth patterns can be created by different corporate policies and management attitudes and by the interactions between a company and its market."
Da bi si pomogao u razmišljanju o strateškim problemima s kojima su se te tvrtkama suočavali, Forrester (1964, str. 32) je napravio model koji je trebao " pokazati kako različite vrste obrazaca korporacijskog razvoja mogu se stvoriti različitim korporacijskim politikama i stajališta o upravljanju i interakcijama između tvrtke i njenog tržišta."
[Tue Oct 21 17:08:31 2003]
Figure 3-6 shows the reference mode.
" Prikaz 3-6 prikazuje referentni način.
[Tue Oct 21 17:08:34 2003]
Forrester (pp.
Forrester (str.
[Tue Oct 21 17:08:34 2003]
32-33) explained:
32-33) je objasnio:
[Tue Oct 21 17:21:07 2003]
The very rare company grows smoothly, as in curve A, and eventually reaches a healthy sustained plateau of mature life.
Vrlo je rijetka tvrtka koja napreduje glatko, kao u krivulji A, i s vremenom doseže dobru stalan razinu stabilnosti zrelog života.
[Tue Oct 21 17:21:31 2003]
More frequently.
Češće
[Tue Oct 21 17:25:18 2003]
the company follows a pattern, as in curve B.
Češće tvrtka slijedi obrazac, kao u krivulji B,
[Tue Oct 21 17:25:20 2003]
where it appears to succeed at first and then encounters a severe crisis that leads to bankruptcy or merger.
Češće tvrtka slijedi obrazac, kao u krivulji B, gdje se čini da najprije uspjeva a zatim nailazi na ozbiljan problem koji završava bankrotom ili pripajanjem.
[Tue Oct 21 17:27:22 2003]
Often.
Često,
[Tue Oct 21 17:29:01 2003]
the pattern is growth stag- nation, as in curve C.
Često, obrazac predstavlja stagnaciju rasta, kao u krivulji C,
[Tue Oct 21 17:29:45 2003]
marked by neither success nor failure.
Često, obrazac predstavlja stagnaciju rasta, kao u krivulji C, koju ne obilježava niti uspjeh niti neuspjeh.
[Tue Oct 21 17:31:26 2003]
Of those companies which do show a long-term growth trend.
Tih tvrtki koje pokazuju dugoročan ternd razvoj.
[Tue Oct 21 17:31:26 2003]
the most common pattern is that in curve D, where growth is accompanied by repeated crisis.
najčešći obrazac je onaj u krivulji D, gdje razvoj prati ponovno isti problem.
[Tue Oct 21 17:37:32 2003]
Patterns of corporate growth
Obrasci korporacijskog razvoja
[Tue Oct 21 17:39:57 2003]
Adapted from Forrester
Prilagođen iz Forrestera
[Wed Oct 22 08:50:33 2003]
33).
33).
[Wed Oct 22 08:50:33 2003]
To do so the model consisted of two subsystems, the company and the market (Figure 3- 7).
Da se to moglo sprovesti, model se sastojao od dvaju podsustava, tvrtke i tržišta (Slika 3- 7).
[Wed Oct 22 08:57:27 2003]
The two subsystems are coupled by the obvious flows of orders, product, and money:
Dva su podsustava povezana očitim tokovima narudžbi, proizvoda, i novca:
[Wed Oct 22 09:13:31 2003]
The market responds to these signals through the order rate and through customer feedback about price, quality, service, product features, and so on.
Tržište odgovara na te signale omjerom narudžbi i kupčevom povratnom informacijom o cijeni, kvaliteti, usluzi, karakteristikama proizvoda, i tako dalje.
[Wed Oct 22 09:15:11 2003]
The diagram elegantly presents the essential feedback processes coupling a firm to its market, stresses that orders depend on much more than price, and begins to suggest the structure which must be captured within each subsystem.
Dijagram elegantno prikazuje ključne postupke povratnu informaciju koji povezuju tvrtku s njenim tržištem, naglašava da narudžbe ovise o puno više toga nego o samoj cijeni (?), i počinje predlagati strukturu koja mora biti obuhvaćena unutar svakog podsustava.
[Wed Oct 22 09:15:11 2003]
Forrester reflected on the importance of this conceptual framework in his thinking:
Forrester iznosi važnost tog konceptualnog okvira u svom razmišljanju:
[Wed Oct 22 09:24:14 2003]
In this particular study, part-time effort for about two years was devoted to false starts before arriving at the point shown in [Figure 3-7].
U ovom određenom proučavanju, povremeno nastojanje otprilike dvije godine su bile se posvećivalo lažnim počecima prije nego što se stiglo do točke prikazane na [Slici 3-7].
[Wed Oct 22 09:24:14 2003]
Thereafter, only eight weeks were required to create the entire system of some 200 equations.
Nakon toga, bila je potrebno samo osam tjedana da se stvori cjelokupni sustav od nekih 200 jednadžbi.
[Wed Oct 22 09:28:26 2003]
Chapter 15 presents a simple version of this model, Forrester's "market growth model," and shows how different management policies can create the patterns of growth described in Figure 3-6.
Poglavlje 15 iznosi jednostavnu verziju tog modela, " tržište Forrestera rast model, " i prikazuje kako različite politike upravljanja mogu stvoriti obrasce rasta koji su opisani na Slici 3-6.
[Wed Oct 22 09:32:13 2003]
A more detailed subsystem diagram is shown in Figure 3-8.
Detaljniji dijagram podsustav prikazan je na Slici 3-8.
[Wed Oct 22 09:33:53 2003]
The purpose of the model was to explore the dynamics of process improvement programs.
Svrha modela je bila ispitati dinamiku programa za razvoj postupka postupka.
[Wed Oct 22 09:33:53 2003]
The firm had implemented a very
Tvrtka je provela vrlo
[Wed Oct 22 09:48:10 2003]
successful quality improvement program.
uspješan program kvalitetnog poboljšanja.
[Wed Oct 22 09:50:24 2003]
However, despite dramatic improvements in quality, productivity, and customer responsiveness, operating profit and the stock price fell, leading to layoffs.
Međutim, unatoč velikim poboljšanjima u kvaliteti, produktivnosti, i kupčevom odazivu, dobit iz poslovanja i cijena dionice su pali, dovodeći do otpuštanja radnika.
[Wed Oct 22 10:06:52 2003]
successful quality improvement program.
uspješan kvalitetan program za poboljšanje.
[Wed Oct 22 10:07:46 2003]
However, despite dramatic improvements in quality, productivity, and customer responsiveness, operating profit and the stock price fell, leading to layoffs.
Međutim, unatoč velikim poboljšanjima u kvaliteti, produktivnosti, i kupčevom odazivu, dobit iz poslovanja i cijena dionica su pale, što je dovelo do otpuštanja radnika.
[Wed Oct 22 10:09:39 2003]
Exploring this paradox required a model with a broad boundary both within the representation of the firm and in interactions of the firm with its environment.
Istraživanje tog paradoksa je zahtijevalo model sa širokom granicom i unutar predstavljanja tvrtke i u tvrtkinim interakcijama tvrtke s njenom okolinom.
[Wed Oct 22 10:13:38 2003]
Besides the usual subsystems for manufacturing, product development, and accounting, the model includes a process improvement sector and a sector labeled "Financial Stress."
Osim uobičajenih podsustava za proizvodnju, razvoja proizvoda, i računovodstva, model uključuje sektor za poboljšanje postupka i sektor označen kao " Financijski pritisak."
[Wed Oct 22 10:13:38 2003]
The Financial Stress subsystem is not an organizational subunit but represents top management decisions regarding layoffs, investment, and the attention given to process
" podsustav Financijski pritisak nije organizacijska podjedinica već predstavlja odluke menedžmenta najviše razine koje se odnose na otpuštanja radnika, ulaganje, i pažnju koja je se poklanja poboljšanju postupka
[Wed Oct 22 10:28:37 2003]
Product Suitability
Proizvod Prikladnost
[Wed Oct 22 10:29:44 2003]
Delivery Delay
Dostava Odgodiš
[Wed Oct 22 10:52:20 2003]
Development projects
Razvojni projekti
[Wed Oct 22 10:54:41 2003]
Workforce commitment
Radna snaga obveza
[Wed Oct 22 10:56:35 2003]
Management support
Uprava podrška
[Wed Oct 22 10:59:01 2003]
? Forecasted revenue
? Je prognozirao prihod
[Wed Oct 22 11:04:03 2003]
Yield, Cycle Time
dobit, Trajanje Ciklusa
[Wed Oct 22 11:05:09 2003]
? Market share
? Tržišni udio
[Wed Oct 22 11:06:42 2003]
On Time Delivery Defects
na vrijeme Dostava Nedostaci
[Wed Oct 22 11:07:19 2003]
Shipments
Pošiljke
[Wed Oct 22 11:07:35 2003]
Manufacturing
Proizvodnja
[Wed Oct 22 11:08:37 2003]
Capital
Kapital
[Wed Oct 22 11:09:55 2003]
Inventory
zalihe
[Wed Oct 22 11:10:37 2003]
Financial Accounting
Financijsko računovodstvo
[Wed Oct 22 11:12:01 2003]
Income statement
Izvještaj o dobiti
[Wed Oct 22 11:12:48 2003]
Balance sheet
Bilanca
[Wed Oct 22 11:13:43 2003]
Flow of funds
Tokovi sredstava
[Wed Oct 22 11:18:23 2003]
Market capitalization
Tržišna kapitalizacija
[Wed Oct 22 11:18:37 2003]
Competing Products
Konkurentski proizvodi
[Wed Oct 22 11:19:19 2003]
Utilization
Iskorištavanje
[Wed Oct 22 11:24:11 2003]
Hiring/Firing Investment
Investiranje u zapošljavanje/otpuštanje
[Wed Oct 22 11:24:50 2003]
Competitor
Konkurent
[Wed Oct 22 11:27:09 2003]
Unit Costs
Jedinični troškovi
[Wed Oct 22 11:27:58 2003]
Management Accounting
Upravljačko računovodstvo
[Wed Oct 22 11:28:43 2003]
Cost of goods sold
Trošak prodane robe
[Wed Oct 22 11:28:59 2003]
Budget variances
Proračunske varijance
[Wed Oct 22 11:29:30 2003]
Operating income
Poslovna dobit
[Wed Oct 22 11:31:44 2003]
Takeover threat
Preuzimanje opasnost
[Wed Oct 22 11:44:47 2003]
These decisions were affected by the firm's financial health and the threat of takeover (as influenced by the market value of the firm relative to book value and cash flow).
Na te je odluke djelovala stanje tvrtke i opasnost od preuzimanja (budući da je na njih imala utjecaja tržišna vrijednost tvrtke s obzirom na knjigovodstvenu vrijednost i protok novca).
[Wed Oct 22 11:47:07 2003]
The diagram also shows that the firm 's sales and market share are endogenous, as is competitor behavior (note that competitors respond not only to the firm 's price but also to its quality improvement efforts).
Dijagram također prikazuje da je 'prodaja i tržišni udio tvrtke endogeni, kao što je i konkurentsko ponašanje (primijetite da konkurenti ne reagiraju samo na 'cijenu tvrke već i na njena nastojanja da poboljša kvalitetu).
[Wed Oct 22 11:47:07 2003]
The stock price and market valuation of the firm are also endogenous.
Cijena dionice i tržišna procjena vrijednosti tvrtke su također endogena.
[Wed Oct 22 11:52:24 2003]
Subsystem diagrams are overviews and should not contain too much detail.
Dijagrami su podsustava pregledi pa ne bi trebali sadržavati previše detalja.
[Wed Oct 22 11:52:47 2003]
The diagram in Figure 3-8 is quite complex;
Dijagram na Slici 3-8 prilično je složen;
[Wed Oct 22 11:54:12 2003]
subsystem diagrams should generally be simpler.
dijagrami bi podsustava općenito trebali biti jednostavniji.
[Wed Oct 22 11:54:12 2003]
Multiple subsystem diagrams can be used to convey the hierarchical structure of large models.
Višestruki dijagrami podsustavi mogu se koristiti za prenošenje hijerarhijsku strukturu velikih modela.
[Wed Oct 22 11:55:18 2003]
Causal loop diagrams
Dijagrami uzročne petlje
[Wed Oct 22 12:07:02 2003]
Model boundary charts and subsystem diagrams show the boundary and architecture of the model but don't show how the variables are related.
Prikazi granice modela modela i dijagrami podsustav prikazuju granicu i strukturu modela no ne pokazuju u kakvom su odnosu varijable.
[Wed Oct 22 12:08:31 2003]
Casual loop diagrams (CLDs) are flexible and useful tools for diagramming the feedback structure of systems in any domain.
Dijagrami uzročnih petlji (CLD) prilagodljiva su i korisna sredstva za prikazavanje strukture povratne informacije sustava pomoću dijagrama u svakoj domeni.
[Wed Oct 22 12:08:42 2003]
Causal diagrams are simply maps showing the causal links among variables with arrows from a cause to an effect.
Uzročni dijagrami su jednostavno mape koje prikazuju uzročne veze među varijablama sa strelicama koje su usmjerene od uzroka prema učinku.
[Wed Oct 22 12:10:33 2003]
Chapter 2 provides examples;
Poglavlje 2 navodi primjere;
[Wed Oct 22 12:10:33 2003]
chapter 5 covers the rules for their construction and interpretation in depth.
poglavlje 5 obuhvaća pravila za njihovu izgradnju i podrobno objašnjenje.
[Wed Oct 22 12:11:41 2003]
Stock and flow maps
Mape stoka i toka
[Wed Oct 22 12:14:10 2003]
Causal loop diagrams emphasize the feedback structure of a system.
Dijagrami uzročne petlje ističu strukturu povratne informacije sustava.
[Wed Oct 22 12:16:23 2003]
Stock and flow diagrams emphasize their underlying physical structure.
Dijagrami stoka i toka ističu svoju osnovnu fizičku strukturu.
[Wed Oct 22 12:18:25 2003]
Stocks and flows track accumulations of material, money, and information as they move through a system.
stokovi i tokovi prate akumulacije materijala, novca, i podataka kako se oni kreću kroz sustav.
[Wed Oct 22 12:20:23 2003]
Stocks include inventories of product, populations, financial accounts such as debt, book value, and cash.
Stokovi obuhvaćaju zalihe proizvoda, stanovništvo, financijske izvještaje poput dug, knjigovodstvene vrijednosti, i gotovina.
[Wed Oct 22 12:21:10 2003]
Flows are the rates of increase or decrease in stocks, such as production and shipments, births and deaths, borrowing and repayment, investment and depreciation, and receipts and expenditures.
Tokovi su stope povećanja ili smanjenja stokova, kao što su proizvodnja i pošiljke, rođenja i smrti, posuđivanje i povrat, ulaganje i amortizacija, i prihodi i rashodi.
[Wed Oct 22 12:22:18 2003]
Stocks characterize the state of the system and generate the information upon which decisions are based.
stokovi označavaju stanje sustava i stvaraju podatke na kojim odluke se temelje.
[Wed Oct 22 12:22:38 2003]
The decisions then alter the rates of flow, altering the stocks and closing the feedback loops in the system.
Odluke tada mijenjaju stope toka, mijenjajući stokove i zatvarajući petlje povratne veze u sustavu.
[Wed Oct 22 12:23:32 2003]
Chapter 2 shows examples;
Poglavlje 2 navodi primjere;
[Wed Oct 22 12:23:32 2003]
chapters 6 and 7 discuss the mapping and behavior of stocks and flows.
poglavlja 6 i 7 razmatraju ucrtavanje na kartu i ponašanje stokova i tokova.
[Wed Oct 22 12:41:37 2003]
These are causal diagrams showing the information inputs to a particular decision rule.
To su uzročni dijagrami koji prikazuju unose podataka za određeno pravilo odlučivanja.
[Wed Oct 22 12:47:17 2003]
Policy structure diagrams focus attention on the information cues the modeler assumes decision makers use to govern the rates of flow in the system.
Dijagrami strukture politike usredotočuju se na davanje nagovještaja o podacima za koje modelar pretpostavlja da su donositelji odluke koriste za upravljanje stopama toka u sustavu.
[Wed Oct 22 12:47:28 2003]
They show the causal structure and time delays involved in particular decisions rather than the feedback structure of the overall system.
Više prikazuju uzročnu strukturu i vremenska odugovlačenja koja su uključena u određene odluke nego strukturu povratne informacije cjelokupnog sustava.
[Wed Oct 22 12:47:38 2003]
Chapter 15 provides examples;
Poglavlje 15 navodi primjere;
[Wed Oct 22 12:47:38 2003]
see Morecroft (1982) for details.
vidi Morecroft (1982) za detalje.
[Wed Oct 22 12:49:32 2003]
Formulating a Simulation Model
Formuliranje simulacijskog modela
[Wed Oct 22 12:56:44 2003]
Once you've developed an initial dynamic hypothesis, model boundary, and conceptual model, you must test them.
Kad ste jednom ste razvili početnu dinamičku hipotezu, granicu modela, i pojmovni model, morate ih testirati.
[Wed Oct 22 12:59:09 2003]
Sometimes you can test the dynamic hypothesis directly through data collection or experiments in the real system.
Ponekad možete dinamičku hipotezu testirati direktno kroz prikupljanje podataka ili eksperimente u stvarnom sustav.
[Wed Oct 22 14:14:02 2003]
Most of the time, however, the conceptual model is so complex that its dynamic implications are unclear.
Većinu je vremena, međutim, konceptualni model toliko složen da su njegove dinamične implikacije nejasne.
[Wed Oct 22 14:16:54 2003]
As discussed in chapter 1, our ability to infer correctly the dynamics of a complex model is extremely poor.
Kako je raspravljeno u prvom poglavlju, naš sposobnost da zaključimo ispravno o dinamici složenog modela je jako mala.
[Wed Oct 22 14:16:54 2003]
Further, in many situations, especially human systems, it is difficult, dangerous, unethical, or simply impossible to conduct the
Nadalje, u mnogim je situacijama, naročito ljudski sustavi, teško, opasno, nemoralno, ili jednostavno nemoguće sprovesti
[Wed Oct 22 14:21:05 2003]
real world experiments that might reveal the flaws in a dynamic hypothesis.
eksperimente iz stvarnog svijeta koji bi mogli pokazati nedostatke u dinamičkoj hipotezi.
[Wed Oct 22 14:26:57 2003]
In the majority of cases, you must conduct these experiments in a virtual world.
U većini slučajeva, te eksperimente morate sprovesti u virtualnom svijetu.
[Wed Oct 22 14:26:57 2003]
To do so, you must move from the conceptual realm of diagrams to a fully specified formal model, complete with equations, parameters, and initial conditions.
Da biste to mogli učiniti, morate preći s konceptualne domene dijagrama na potpuno određeni formalni model, zajedno s jednadžbama, parametrima, i početnim uvjetima.
[Wed Oct 22 14:32:00 2003]
Actually, formalizing a conceptual model often generates important insight even before it is ready to be simulated.
Ustvari, formaliziranje konceptualnog modela često daje važan uvid čak nego što je spreman spreman na simuliranje.
[Wed Oct 22 14:33:16 2003]
Formalization helps you to recognize vague concepts and resolve contradictions that went unnoticed or undiscussed during the conceptual phase.
Formalizacija vam pomaže da prepoznate nejasne pojmove i riješiti oprečnosti koja su prošle neopažene ili neraspravljene za vrijeme konceptualne faze.
[Wed Oct 22 14:41:50 2003]
Formalization is where the real test of your understanding occurs:
Formalizacija je tamo gdje se odvija stvarno ispitivanje vašeg shvaćanja:
[Wed Oct 22 14:48:25 2003]
computers accept no hand waving arguments.
računala ne prihvaćaju argumente koji pokušavaju impresionirati.
[Wed Oct 22 14:51:59 2003]
Indeed, the most experienced modelers routinely write some equations and estimate parameters throughout the modeling process, even in the earliest phases of problem articulation and conceptualization-often with the clients-as a way to resolve ambiguity and test initial hypotheses.
Doista, najiskusniji modelari redovito pišu neke jednadžbe i procijenjuju parametre kroz postupak modeliranja, čak i u najranijim fazama izražavanja i stvaranja predodžbe o problemu-često s klijentima-kao način rješavanja dvosmislenosti i testiranja početnih hipoteza.
[Wed Oct 22 14:51:59 2003]
System dynamics practice includes a large variety of tests one can apply during the formulation stage to identify flaws in proposed formulations and improve your understanding of the system.
Praksa dinamike sustava uključuje velik niz testova koji se mogu primjenjivati tijekom faze oblikovanja da bi se utvrdili nedostaci u predložen oblikovanjima i poboljšalo vaše razumijevanje sustava.
[Wed Oct 22 14:58:10 2003]
Testing begins as soon as you write the first equation.
Testiranje započinje čim napišete prvu jednadžbu.
[Wed Oct 22 14:59:12 2003]
Part of testing, of course, is comparing the simulated behavior of the model to the actual behavior of the system.
Dio testiranja, dakako, uspoređuje simulirano ponašanje modela sa stvarnim ponašanjem sustava.
[Wed Oct 22 15:01:49 2003]
But testing involves far more than the replication of historical behavior.
No testiranje uključuje puno više od replikacije stvarnog ponašanja.
[Wed Oct 22 15:03:20 2003]
Every variable must correspond to a meaningful concept in the real world.
Svaka varijabla mora odgovarati važnom pojmu iz stvarnog svijeta.
[Wed Oct 22 15:05:49 2003]
Every equation must be checked for dimensional consistency (so you aren't adding apples and oranges).
Mora se provjeriti dimenzionalna dosljednost svake jednadžbe (da ne bi zbrajali kruške i jabuke).
[Wed Oct 22 15:05:49 2003]
The sensitivity of model behavior and policy recommendations must be assessed in light of the uncertainty in assumptions, both parametric and structural.
Osjetljivost ponašanja modela i preporuke politike moraju se ustanoviti u okviru nesigurnosti u pretpostavke, i parametrijske i strukturalne.
[Wed Oct 22 15:13:34 2003]
Models must be tested under extreme conditions, conditions that may never have been observed in the real world.
Modeli moraju se testirati pod ekstremnim uvjetima, uvjeti koji možda nikada nisu bili primjećeni u stvarnom svijetu.
[Wed Oct 22 15:15:19 2003]
What happens to the GDP of a simulated economy if you suddenly reduce energy supplies to zero?
Što se dogode BDP-u simuliranog gospodarstva ako odjednom smanjite dovođenje energije na nulu?
[Wed Oct 22 15:18:04 2003]
What happens in a model of an automaker if you raise the price of its cars by a factor of one billion?
Što se dogodi u model proizvođača automobila ako povećate cijenu njegovih automobila faktorom od jedne milijarde?
[Wed Oct 22 15:19:49 2003]
What happens if you suddenly increase dealer inventories by I 000%?
Što se dogodi ako odjednom povećate trovačke zalihe za 1000%?
[Wed Oct 22 15:20:18 2003]
Even though these conditions have never and could never be observed, there is no doubt about what the behavior of the system must be:
Iako se ti uvjeti nikada nisu i neće ih se moći primijetiti, nema dvojbe o tome kakvo mora biti ponašanje sustava:
[Wed Oct 22 15:21:36 2003]
Without energy, the GDP of a modern economy must fall nearly to zero;
Bez energije, BDP moderne ekonomije mora pasti gotovo na nulu;
[Wed Oct 22 15:22:25 2003]
with a price one billion times higher, the demand for the firm 's cars must fall to zero;
s cijenom milijardu puta većom, potražnja za 'automobilima tvrke moraju pasti na nulu;
[Wed Oct 22 15:22:25 2003]
with a huge surplus of cars on dealer lots, production should soon fall to zero but cannot become negative.
s golemim viškom automobila na trgovačkim ponudama, proizvodnja uskoro bi trebala pasti na nulu ali ne može postati negativna.
[Wed Oct 22 15:33:57 2003]
You might imagine that, models would never fail to pass such obvious tests, that production without energy, demand for goods that cost more than the total wealth of many nations, and negative production would never arise.
biste mogli pretpostaviti da, modeli nikad podbacuju na takvim očitim testovima, da proizvodnja bez energije, potražnja za robom koja iznosi više od ukupnog bogatstva mnogih zemalja, pa nikad ne bi došlo do negativne proizvodnje.
